MSTR Stock Finally Resumes Uptrend, Eying $200+ as BTC Tops $77,000

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After months of heavy losses, MicroStrategy is beginning to show signs of stabilization as Bitcoin recovers and its long-term accumulation strategy continues.

Technical Stabilization After a Historic Drawdown

After nearly seven months of relentless selling, MicroStrategy — now operating as Strategy Inc. — appears to be forming a potential bottom. The stock endured one of the steepest declines in its history, erasing substantial market value and weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

Shares ultimately found support just above the key $100 psychological level. In February, the stock briefly approached this threshold before staging a sharp intraday reversal, signaling the first signs of buyer interest. More recently, momentum has shifted more convincingly, with the stock climbing roughly 11% and moving back above $170.

This rebound was not driven by earnings or monetary policy signals, but rather by easing geopolitical tensions. A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, along with Iran’s commitment to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, helped reduce concerns around energy disruptions and inflation. As a result, markets began to price in a higher probability of interest rate cuts, lifting risk assets broadly.

Bitcoin Recovery Drives Equity Rebound

MicroStrategy’s stock performance remains closely linked to Bitcoin, effectively acting as a leveraged proxy for the digital asset. As Bitcoin recovered from below $60,000 to above $78,000, the company’s shares responded in tandem.

This strong correlation creates a double-edged dynamic. During bullish phases in the crypto market, MicroStrategy often outperforms Bitcoin itself. However, in periods of weakness, the downside can be significantly amplified.

The current stabilization in the stock therefore reflects improving sentiment in the cryptocurrency market rather than any major shift in the company’s core operating performance. If Bitcoin’s recovery proves sustainable, further upside in the equity may follow. Conversely, renewed volatility could quickly reverse recent gains.

Dividend Adjustments Signal Funding Strategy

MicroStrategy continues to rely on preferred equity as a key funding mechanism to support its strategy. The company recently declared cash dividends across its preferred stock series, payable on March 31, 2026. Quarterly dividends range between $2.00 and $2.50 per share, while the monthly STRC dividend stands at $0.9583 per share.

In a notable move, the company increased the STRC preferred dividend rate from 11.25% to 11.50% annually, effective March 1, 2026. This adjustment highlights the firm’s effort to maintain investor interest by offering attractive yields, ensuring continued access to capital for its bitcoin acquisition strategy.

Earnings: Stable Revenue, Expanding Losses

The company’s latest quarterly results provided a mixed outlook. Revenue for the quarter ending December 2025 came in at $122.99 million, slightly exceeding expectations and improving from $120.7 million in the same period a year earlier. The legacy analytics software business remains relatively stable and continues to deliver consistent revenue performance.

However, profitability tells a different story. MicroStrategy reported an adjusted loss of $42.93 per share, which, although narrower than expected, was significantly wider than the $3.20 per share loss recorded in the prior year.

This widening loss reflects a fundamental shift in the company’s financial structure. Its earnings are now heavily influenced by Bitcoin price movements and accounting treatment, making volatility a persistent feature of its financial results.

Technical Picture Shows Early Signs of Stabilisation

From a technical perspective, MicroStrategy’s recent price action suggests a potential exhaustion of selling pressure. The sharp dip to $100 appeared to flush out remaining weak hands, triggering aggressive dip-buying and a swift rebound.

MSTR Chart Weekly – Rebounding Above the 200 SMA

The stock had been clinging to its 100-week simple moving average since late November, but that level finally gave way during this week’s sell-off. Crucially, however, buyers stepped in, forming a new support zone and setting the stage for a recovery. But buyers have to push above the 200 SMA (purple) now, which opens the door for $200 and $250 then.

Aggressive Capital Raising and Continued Bitcoin Buying

MicroStrategy remains committed to raising capital and deploying it into Bitcoin. According to a recent filing, the company sold 71,590 shares of its STRC preferred stock, generating approximately $7.1 million in net proceeds. It also issued over 1.7 million shares of Class A common stock, raising roughly $229.9 million.

A significant portion of this capital was quickly allocated toward additional Bitcoin purchases. During a one-week period, the company acquired 3,015 Bitcoin for approximately $204.1 million, at an average price of around $67,700 per coin.

This brought total holdings to 780,897 Bitcoin, with a cumulative cost basis of roughly $59 billion. The scale of these holdings reinforces MicroStrategy’s transformation into a Bitcoin-centric investment vehicle, with its future performance closely tied to the trajectory of the cryptocurrency market.

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.