Nike Earnings Preview: NKE Stock Tests $40 Support as Turnaround Doubts Mount

Nike (NKE) heads into its June 30 earnings report near multi-year lows, with analysts cutting targets, China demand under pressure, and 4-hour technicals still pointing lower.

Nike Earnings Arrive With NKE Stock Near 2014 Levels

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) enters earnings week under heavy pressure, with the stock trading near its lowest levels in more than a decade. Shares closed at $40.75 on Thursday, June 26, and slipped close to the key $40 support zone after a difficult year for the sportswear giant.

The company is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 earnings after the market close on Tuesday, June 30. Expectations are low, but that also makes the guidance tone especially important.

Analysts Turn Cautious Before Nike’s Earnings

Nike shares have fallen more than 35% this year as investors question whether CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan can revive growth quickly enough.

The pressure intensified after several analysts cut price targets last week. Deutsche Bank lowered its target to $43 from $51 while keeping a Hold rating. Oppenheimer cut its target sharply to $60 from $120, warning that Nike’s repositioning efforts and macro headwinds could make 2026 a restructuring year. Stifel, BNP Paribas, BTIG, and Citi also reduced expectations.

The message from Wall Street is clear: investors want proof that Nike’s brand reset is working before paying a higher multiple again.

China and Inventory Are the Main Earnings Tests

The headline earnings numbers may not be enough to drive the stock on their own. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 2% year over year to around $10.8 billion, while EPS is expected near $0.11-$0.13.

Instead, traders will focus on Greater China and inventory.

China remains Nike’s biggest weak spot. Management previously warned that Greater China revenue could fall sharply because of digital channel restructuring, lower-quality inventory reductions, and competition from domestic brands.

Inventory is just as important. Nike’s direct-to-consumer push weakened some wholesale relationships while leaving the company exposed to excess lifestyle inventory. Elliott Hill’s turnaround strategy aims to rebuild wholesale demand, reduce promotions, and shift the product mix back toward performance footwear.

If Nike shows cleaner inventories and improving wholesale momentum, investors may look past weak near-term earnings. But if promotions remain heavy, the stock could retest deeper support quickly.

NKE Technical Analysis: 4-Hour Chart Still Bearish

Nike’s 4-hour chart remains weak heading into earnings.

The stock is trading below almost every major moving average.

• The 10 EMA and 10 SMA both sit at $41.92, creating the first near-term resistance area.
• Above that, the 20 EMA at $42.83, VWMA at $43.03, Ichimoku base line at $43.16, and 20 SMA at $43.54 form a tight resistance cluster.

That means NKE must reclaim the $43-$44 zone to show any meaningful recovery attempt.

Longer-term moving averages remain much higher. The 50 EMA is at $43.73, the 100 EMA at $45.20, and the 200 EMA at $49.33. The 200 SMA is also near $49.93, reinforcing the $50 area as a major upside barrier.

NKE Chart 4H – Moving Averages Keep Pressure on Buyers

Oscillators show the stock is stretched, but not yet firmly bullish. The RSI is at 30.09, close to oversold territory. Stochastic %K is at 12.23, while Williams %R is at -87.35, both showing downside exhaustion. The CCI at -115.71 and Momentum at -4.45 are flashing buy signals, suggesting a short-term bounce is possible.

However, MACD remains negative at -0.97 with a sell signal, keeping the broader 4-hour trend under pressure.

Key Nike Levels to Watch After Earnings

• The most important level is $40. Options positioning also highlights $40 as a key support zone. If NKE breaks below that level after earnings, the next downside target sits near $35.
• On the upside, buyers first need to reclaim $41.90-$42.00, then $43-$44. A stronger recovery would need a move toward $50, where technical and options resistance is likely to build. Above that, $52 becomes the next major recovery target.

For now, Nike remains a turnaround story with very little room for disappointment. A clean margin outlook, stabilizing China commentary, and improving inventory trends could trigger a relief rally. But if guidance confirms that restructuring will take longer than expected, NKE may struggle to defend the $40 level.