Bitcoin Bounces Back Above $61K as Fed Easing Hopes Override ETF Outflows

Quick overview

Bitcoin climbed back above $61K early July on softer jobs data and Fed commentary suggesting inflation’s cooling. BTC hit $61,297 by mid-morning, up 2% overnight on the jobless number disappointment. Ethereum bounced to $1,696, Solana pumped 4.6% to $80.71.

The jobs report missed badly. Economists expected 115,000 new jobs. Actual? 57,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.2% instead of holding at 4.3%. That weak data flip-flops recession fears. If hiring’s slowing that much, Fed rate hikes probably end, which helps everything risky.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments yesterday about “lower inflation risks” had traders already pricing in relief. Today’s jobs data just confirmed the narrative. BTC hadn’t seen $61K in weeks. Breaching it matters psychologically even if the broader structure looks ugly.

Here’s the problem. Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $296 million in outflows despite prices climbing. That’s stunning. Price goes up, institutions go down. iShares Bitcoin Trust lost almost $220 million. Only Grayscale Mini Trust saw inflows at $36 million, probably because of its lower fees. People voting with their feet.

June was carnage for ETF flows. Record $4.5 billion exodus for the month. Citigroup responded by cutting their year-end Bitcoin target from $112K to $82K and ETH target from $3,175 to $2,240. They’re blaming weak institutional demand and the delayed CLARITY Act stablecoin regulation.

The $62K level is the next real test. Bitcoin’s at a resistance cluster with the 20-day EMA around $62,148 and Parabolic SAR at $62,523. Break that clean and the 50-day EMA at $66,200 becomes realistic. That’s a 7.7% pop from current levels. Fail and $60K becomes the battle line everyone’s watching.

Solana outperformed massively, up 20% over the past week. The ecosystem’s attracting actual users now instead of just speculators. Tokenized stock trading heating up. World, a new on-chain prediction market, launching. Real utility instead of meme activity is pricing in.

Long-term Bitcoin holders returned to net accumulation according to Glassnode. Whales aren’t panicking despite the terrible ETF flows. That’s a positive divergence. Institutions dumping while whale wallets accumulate usually means big money’s positioning for moves retail doesn’t see yet.

Technical indicators point recovery. RSI climbed to 43.76, above its signal line at 35.59. The gauge bottomed near oversold in mid-June and is recovering. Push above 50 RSI confirms shift from bearish to neutral territory. We’re not there yet.

CoinMarketCap’s Fear & Greed improved from Extreme Fear to regular Fear. Not excitement but at least not maximum panic. Tiger Research turned more constructive, thinking the market’s in the final stages of its bear cycle. That matches the whale accumulation and sentiment improvement.

The setup’s contradictory. Price action says recovery. Institutional flows say death. Whales buying while ETFs bleed suggests the real money’s not the public flows everyone tracks. July FOMC meeting in three weeks becomes crucial. If Fed signals aggressive easing, $70K becomes realistic even with bad ETF numbers.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Sophia Cruz

Financial Writer - Asian & European Desks

Sophia is an experienced writer, reporter and newsdesk member, mostly on the financial sectors. For the past 5 years Sophia has covered a wide variety of topics such as the financial markets, economics, technology, fin-tech and trading. Sophia has been a part of the FX Leaders team since 2017 and works on producing valuable content and information for traders of all levels of experience.

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