WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Oil Near $80 as US-Iran Tensions Offset OPEC+ Supply Increase

WTI crude oil trades near $80 as US-Iran tensions fuel supply concerns. See today’s oil price forecast, key support and resistance levels...

Written by: Arslan Butt • Wednesday, July 15, 2026 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Quick overview

WTI crude oil is trading near $80 due to escalating US-Iran tensions and concerns over supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC+ production increases and declining global demand are creating a ceiling on WTI prices despite decreasing inventories.
Key resistance and support levels to watch are $80.33 and $78.35, respectively, as market momentum shifts.
Drawdowns in global crude inventories continue to support prices, indicating ongoing demand despite rising production.

WTI crude oil trades near $80 as US-Iran tensions fuel supply concerns. See today’s oil price forecast, key support and resistance levels, and what’s driving WTI prices.

Crude oil from West Texas Intermediate reached prices of US$79.75. US-Iran relations destabilizing put pressure on crude oil supply from the Middle East. This unstable situation increased geopolitical risk, pushing West Texas Intermediate oil to its $80 per barrel.

Along with the geopolitical risk, OPEX+ producing oil stockpiles and global demand for oil receding helped keep pressure on prices. This leads the market to guess West Texas Intermediate oil prices and if they will break the $80 threshold.

Why are Oil Prices Rising Today?

The primary reason for the price increase has been the destabilization of the Middle East and the US and Iran military action. This directly affects the Strait of Hormuz and oil tankers and shipments. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital trade route as it carries 20% of the global oil exports.

Due to Middle East shipping disruptions, Asian oil refiners have had to look for alternative oil supplies and increased US oil exports, increasing global energy spot prices. Global supply has decreased making crude oil costs increase. The Gulf shipping situation is more of a Brent crude concern, easing WTI crude prices.

The price of oil has increased globally, but OPEC+ has decreased oil production costs. Therefore, the cost of oil has increased globally while OPEC+ gradually restores their oil stockpiles. On the flip side, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency see demand for oil decreasing, which could push today’s oil prices to a surplus.

Inventory drawdowns continue to support crude

Oil fundamentals are supported by drawdowns in inventories despite rising production.

Global onshore crude inventories continued to decrease in June. Drawdowns in OECD stockpiles and Chinese inventories were recorded. In the United States, commercial crude inventories decreased during the last reporting week. Gasoline inventories also decreased due to refiners working to fulfill peak summer demand.

These drawdowns indicate the market continues to need stored crude to fulfill demand and offset supply disruptions. This leaves prices vulnerable to further supply disruptions in the Middle East.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI is testing key Fibonacci resistance levels after a major rebound from $67.00.

Short-term momentum is improving as prices have reclaimed the 50-period EMA. The RSI is holding near 68, indicating bullish momentum but also the potential for an overbought market.

A sustained break above $80.33 would target the $83.37 resistance, and then the $87.36 resistance would likely come into play.

The potential for profit taking would be triggered by a failure to hold above $78.35. Stronger support is located near $73.26.

Key Takeaways

Rapidly escalating tensions in the U.S. and Iran combined with concerns of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to place upward pressure on WTI.
Near demand constraints from the OPEC+ production increases and declining global demand continue to place a ceiling on WTI prices.
Decreasing global inventories and crude demand from refiners are placing near term support on crude prices.
$80.33 resistance and $78.35 support levels should be closely monitored for the next move in WTI.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.