Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds Above $4,040 Ahead of NFP Week

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at approximately $4,044. Investors are awaiting U.S. economic data throughout the week, with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) being released on Friday. Weaker labor data may bring the NFP closer, while increased central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and a strong physical demand for gold may keep the price higher longer.

Investors are expecting U.S. labor data, which may cause a shift in the expectations of the Fed, and are beginning the trading week with gold in a consolidation pattern. The NFP data is expected to be the largest market mover this week, while central banks and increased geopolitical tensions continue to push prices above the $4,000 mark.

NFP Week is Expected to be the Most Important Week for Gold in the Short Term

The focus is now from the recent meetings of the Fed and the Bank of Japan to the busy week ahead for gold. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Monday. Tuesday will see JOLTS job openings and Factory Orders. Wednesday will see the ADP report and the ISM Services PMI, followed by weekly jobless claims on Thursday. The week will culminate in the NFP on Friday.

Market consensus sees the NFP between 40,000 and 90,000, with the unemployment rate between 4.2 and 4.3%. If the labor report is weak, the market will expect the Fed to be less hawkish and the gold price should benefit. Conversely, strong employment and wage reports should benefit the dollar and hurt gold.

Central Banks Keep Increasing Gold Reserves

Recent consolidations of gold still point to structural strengthening. World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 report states central banks bought 289 tons of gold in the Q2 reporting a 62% yearly increase and a new record for the second quarter.

Poland purchased 51 tons and China continued its ongoing strategy of gold purchases with 33 more tons. First quarter gold demand also reflected a 2% increase to 2,522 tons with a total worth of $380 billion which shows continued institutional purchases even with gold prices being at a record high.

The report also noted OTC demand at 327 tons, and a balanced total gold supply of 1,269 tons, thus denoting the physical market’s price reinforcing capacity.

Fed, Dollar and Geopolitics Still Shaping Sentiment

Despite the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged last week, the market are still assessing the chance of rate cuts occurring this year. This occurs if U.S. economic data shows signs of further weakness. Safe-haven demand persists with geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Central banks diversifying reserves is sustaining buying interest in the long term too.

Japan’s central bank also stayed rates unchanged at 1.0%. They are also biased towards tightening. This was a part of the macro backdrop although the market reaction was muted. Heading into next week, U.S. labor data will drive precious metals most.

Gold Technical Analysis: Triangle Compression Hints at a Big Move

Gold continues trading in a symmetrical triangle with buyers at $4,020. Sellers are capping gold’s advances at $4,070. Gold is trading near the 50 EMA with the 100 EMA at $4,070 which is near immediate resistance.

Momentum is neutral with the RSI at 44, showing no buying or selling advantage. A breakout at $4,070 will push momentum bullish towards $4,120 with targets at $4,172. Bearish momentum will push gold towards $3,964 and $3,914 if $4,020 is not sustained.

Resistance: $4,070, $4,120, $4,172

Support: $4,020, $3,964, $3,914

Trade Setup

Entry: Buy above $4,070

Targets: $4,120, then $4,172

Stop Loss: Below $4,020

There will be no clear breakout or breakout in gold price. Expect trading will be continuing under the constraint of a triangle pattern. Until there’s a breakout or a clean breakdown, expect the price to be contained within the range.

FAQ

What could drive gold prices?

The primary influence for gold prices will be the Non-Farm Payrolls due for release on Friday. ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings and the ADP employment report will also be significant in shaping the Fed and Dollar.

Why do the banks continue buying gold?

The banks continue buying gold because of reserve diversification and hedging against inflation. The World Gold Council reported 289 tonnes were purchased in Q2 2026. (Link the official WGC report.)

What are the top prices for gold?

Looking at gold price analysis, the first line of resistance emerges at $4,070 with the next line at $4,120 and the next line at $4,172. The first line of support emerges at $4,020, $3,964, and $3,914.