Is It Time to Buy Strategy as MTSR Stock and BTC Rebound 20% Off Support Level?
MicroStrategy’s sharp rebound this week highlights how tightly the stock remains tethered to Bitcoin’s extreme swings and shifting...
Quick overview
- MicroStrategy's stock rebounded nearly 20% this week, closely following Bitcoin's recovery from a significant drop.
- Executive Chairman Michael Saylor highlighted a shift in the regulatory landscape for digital assets, noting increased institutional adoption of crypto services by major U.S. banks.
- Despite recent volatility, analysts maintain a bullish outlook on MicroStrategy, with a consensus rating of 1.43 and a price target suggesting a potential 350% upside.
- The company's leadership has subtly shifted its stance on Bitcoin sales, acknowledging potential scenarios under which they might consider selling.
Live BTC/USD Chart
MicroStrategy’s sharp rebound this week highlights how tightly the stock remains tethered to Bitcoin’s extreme swings and shifting regulatory narratives.
A Strong Bounce After a Rough Start
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) began the week under heavy pressure, sliding to $155 as renewed weakness in Bitcoin dragged down the entire crypto-linked equity space. But after touching that major support level, the stock staged an impressive turnaround, rallying nearly 20% to $187 within the first three trading sessions of the week.
The surge followed a sharp recovery in Bitcoin itself. After plunging toward the $80,000 region on Monday, BTC roared back to $93,000 by Wednesday. This rebound helped halt MicroStrategy’s four-month decline, during which the stock had shed almost 65% from its early-year peak of $457. The technical picture reflected this shift, with MSTR bouncing cleanly off the 100-week SMA, a level that had acted as support throughout the summer months.
Saylor: Bitcoin’s Institutional Transformation Has Accelerated
At Binance Blockchain Week, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor emphasized how dramatically the regulatory climate for digital assets has shifted in the past year. He credited much of this momentum to what he called the emergence of President Donald Trump as the “Bitcoin president,” noting that newly appointed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and SEC Chair Paul Atkins are shaping a more constructive framework for the industry.
Saylor highlighted a surprising development: the rapid embrace of crypto services by the U.S. banking sector. Institutions including BNY Mellon, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Charles Schwab, and Bank of America—once hesitant or openly hostile—are now offering active lending and custody solutions.
“Eight of the top ten banks now engage in crypto lending,” Saylor said, calling it a complete reversal from regulatory views just a few years ago.
Analysts Stay Overwhelmingly Bullish Despite Volatility
Even after MicroStrategy’s dramatic correction, analysts have largely maintained a positive stance. Benchmark reaffirmed its Buy rating and issued a bold $705 price target, representing a potential 350% upside. Market sentiment remains strongly bullish with a consensus rating of 1.43 (Strong Buy).
Analysts argue that the selloff has pushed MSTR deep into oversold territory, and that the stock is now trading at a significant discount relative to Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Several firms note that Bitcoin’s decline has exerted an exaggerated influence on MSTR’s valuation compared with the company’s actual operational and capital-strategy fundamentals.
JPMorgan Index Warning Triggers Industry Outcry
The debate around MicroStrategy intensified after JPMorgan suggested that removing MSTR from the MSCI indices could force as much as $2.8 billion in outflows, potentially rising to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit.
The projection triggered strong backlash across the crypto community. Real estate investor Grant Cardone was among those calling for a boycott of JPMorgan, accusing the bank of intentionally undermining MicroStrategy and, by extension, the Bitcoin ecosystem. The uproar comes as JPMorgan continues to face public criticism regarding its historical ties to Jeffrey Epstein, adding another layer of reputational complexity.
Leadership Affirms Commitment—With a Subtle Shift
Saylor has continued to champion the company’s “Bitcoin-first” model, insisting in a CNBC interview that MicroStrategy expects BTC to outperform gold, stocks, and traditional stores of value over the long run.
However, in an unusual shift in tone, CEO Phong Le stated on the What Bitcoin Did podcast that MicroStrategy could theoretically sell Bitcoin under two extreme conditions:
- MSTR trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings (1x mNAV)
- The company cannot raise capital through debt or equity markets
While both scenarios are highly unlikely, the acknowledgment marks a notable evolution from MicroStrategy’s historic “never sell” posture.
Expanded Capital Strategy Draws Institutional Interest
In November, Strategy Inc., a MicroStrategy affiliate, issued 3.5 million euro-denominated Series A Perpetual Stream Preferred Shares, offering a 10% dividend exclusively to institutional investors in the EEA and U.K. The proceeds are expected to strengthen MicroStrategy’s corporate liquidity and support further Bitcoin purchases.
Institutional participation continues to grow. CalSTRS, one of the largest public pension funds in the U.S., recently revealed a $133 million stake in MicroStrategy—one of the clearest endorsements yet of the company’s Bitcoin-centric strategy.
Towering Bitcoin Holdings and Blowout Earnings Define the New MSTR
MicroStrategy’s transformation is underscored by its enormous Bitcoin position:
- 650,000 BTC, worth roughly $51 billion, purchased at an average price of $74,433.
In its second quarter of 2025, the company delivered:
- Net income: $10.02 billion
- EPS: $32.60
- Revenue: $114.5 million
- Operating income growth: 7,100% year-over-year
A significant portion of this growth stems from the rollout of the Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC)—a Bitcoin-backed yield vehicle aimed at institutions.
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