WTI Oil Below $65, Yet July’s Best Month Since 2023 Still in Play
WTI crude oil futures fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, trading around $64.20 due to short-term selling. Despite this, the overall...
Quick overview
- WTI crude oil futures fell below $65 per barrel, trading around $64.20 due to short-term selling, but the overall outlook remains positive.
- Geopolitical risks and supply issues continue to support oil prices, with tensions in the Middle East and production outages in Kazakhstan contributing to market stability.
- Technically, WTI remains in a rising channel, and as long as prices stay above $63.30, stabilization and a potential move back toward $66.50 are favored.
- Profit-taking was expected after recent highs, but buyers are still interested and looking for better entry points.
WTI crude oil futures fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, trading around $64.20 due to short-term selling. Despite this, the overall outlook is positive. Prices are set for their best monthly gain since July 2023, helped by ongoing geopolitical risks and supply issues.
This pullback does not mean the market is breaking down. Instead, it shows the market is cooling off after reaching recent highs near $66.50. Oil prices have climbed steadily over the past month, so some profit-taking was expected as prices neared resistance. Buyers are still interested and seem to be waiting for better entry points.
Geopolitical Risk Keeps Energy Premium Intact
Geopolitical uncertainty is still supporting oil prices. Recent tensions between the US and Iran have brought more attention to energy security and shipping routes, especially the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key passage for global oil and LNG shipments.
Any problems in this area would quickly affect supply chains, which is why markets react strongly to news from the region. Outside the Middle East, oil prices have also been supported this month by:
- Production outages in Kazakhstan
- Weather-related US output disruptions
- Tighter restrictions on Russian oil purchases
- Ongoing instability in Venezuela
These factors have helped balance worries about possible oversupply later this year, keeping prices from falling too much.
WTI Technicals Show Controlled Pullback, Not Breakdown
From a technical standpoint, WTI remains structurally sound. Technically, WTI still looks solid. On the 4-hour chart, prices are staying within a clear rising channel, even though they could not stay above $66.50. Recent price action near the highs showed long upper wicks and small red candles, which suggests resistance is holding but there is no heavy selling.nacci retracement near $64.10. Below that, stronger support sits at:
- $63.30 (50% Fibonacci retracement)
- $62.60 (61.8% retracement)
The rising trendline from late January is still in place, and the 50-period EMA near $60.80 is also moving higher, which supports the overall uptrend.
Momentum has slowed, but it is not negative. The RSI has dropped from almost 70 to about 59, which suggests the market is consolidating instead of ending its trend.
WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Stabilization Favored Above $63.30
If WTI stays above $63.30, the chances favor prices stabilizing and possibly moving back toward the top of the channel. If prices fall below $62.50, the outlook would weaken, but for now, buyers are still in control.
Trade idea: Consider buying near $63.30, with a target of $66.50 and a stop below $62.50.
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