February Relief for South Africa Fuel Prices, but Caps Diesel and Petrol Price Cuts
Fuel prices for South African drivers are expected to drop in February, according to new data from the Central Energy Fund.
Quick overview
- South African motorists can expect fuel price relief in February, with petrol prices projected to drop by approximately 67 cents per litre and diesel by around 65 cents per litre.
- The reductions are smaller than earlier estimates due to renewed volatility in global oil markets, influenced by geopolitical tensions.
- A stronger rand and softer international oil prices contributed to the expected decreases in fuel prices.
- The government is also planning a significant overhaul of the Diesel Refund Scheme to simplify claims and reduce fraud for major diesel consumers.
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Fuel prices for South African drivers are expected to drop in February, according to new data from the Central Energy Fund.
Fuel Price Outlook for February
Latest data compiled at the end of January points to a moderate decline in fuel prices next month. Petrol prices are expected to drop by approximately 67 cents per litre, while diesel could fall by around 65 cents per litre.
While the reductions will be welcomed by consumers, they are notably smaller than earlier estimates, which had suggested cuts of up to R1.63 per litre. The downward revision reflects renewed volatility in global oil markets rather than domestic pricing factors.
International crude prices surged late last week amid heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following escalating rhetoric involving the US, Israel, and Iran. This briefly pushed US WTI crude above $66 per barrel before prices retreated below $63 as tensions eased early this week.
The episode highlights how quickly fuel price expectations can shift. Global risk events tend to feed rapidly into higher fuel price projections, while periods of easing tension often take longer to translate into meaningful consumer relief.
Projected South African Fuel Price Adjustments – February
Petrol 93 (ULP)
- Expected decrease of 65 cents per litre
- Driven mainly by a softer international oil price and a firmer rand during most of January.
Petrol 95 (ULP)
- Expected decrease of 64 cents per litre
- Similar pricing dynamics to Petrol 93, with exchange rate effects playing a supportive role.
Diesel 0.05% Sulphur (Wholesale)
- Expected decrease of 50 cents per litre
- Lower global diesel benchmarks and easing freight demand have contributed to the decline.
Diesel 0.005% Sulphur (Wholesale)
- Expected decrease of 56 cents per litre
- Reflects both weaker refined fuel margins and improved currency conditions.
Illuminating Paraffin
- Expected decrease of 53 cents per litre
- Offers some relief for households, particularly in lower-income and rural areas that rely on paraffin for heating and cooking.
What’s Driving the Outlook
- A stronger rand for most of January helped reduce import costs.
- International oil prices softened, despite late-month volatility.
- Refining margins eased, especially for middle distillates such as diesel.
Diesel Refund Scheme Faces Overhaul
Beyond pump prices, major diesel consumers in South Africa are preparing for important regulatory changes. The government is planning a significant revamp of the Diesel Refund Scheme, which has been in place since 2001.
The scheme allows qualifying sectors—such as agriculture, mining, and forestry—to reclaim portions of the General Fuel Levy and Road Accident Fund levy on diesel used for eligible activities.
Authorities aim to introduce a streamlined system that simplifies claims, strengthens SARS compliance, and reduces fraud, marking a structural shift for large-scale diesel users in the months ahead.
If you want, I can also add a short consumer impact section, a timeline to the official price announcement, or a separate explainer on how the diesel refund changes could affect farmers and miners.
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