Silver Price Rebounds to $78.00–$78.70 as US-Iran Ceasefire Extension Eases Tensions – Breakout Above $80 Next?
Silver (XAG/USD) is looking like it's recovered a bit today with prices hovering around $78.00 to $78.70 per ounce after taking a pretty...
Quick overview
- Silver (XAG/USD) has shown some recovery today, with prices ranging from $78.00 to $78.70 per ounce after a decline earlier in the week.
- Key factors influencing silver prices include reduced geopolitical tensions and a weaker US dollar, which have contributed to a slight uptick in demand.
- Despite a predicted supply deficit in silver, current price movements are heavily influenced by Middle Eastern developments rather than fundamental factors.
- Technical analysis indicates that the $75.50 to $75.00 zone is critical for support, while resistance levels are identified at $77.80 and $78.70.
Silver (XAG/USD) is looking like it’s recovered a bit today with prices hovering around $78.00 to $78.70 per ounce after taking a pretty sharp tumble on Tuesday. Gains were pretty rough at 1.5% to 2% and then it just started popping back up from lows around $76.60 to $77 as folks started buying during the dip.
Key Drivers Right Now
- Less Tense geopolitics: President Trump has said he’s extending that US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely which is probably helping to calm some nerves and cut back on some of those safe-haven flows and the inflation pressures tied to rising oil costs. However, there are still major questions about whether those peace talks will get off the ground – Iran is refusing to show up unless the US agrees to lift that naval blockade.
- Macro Sentiment: Cheaper US dollar and slightly lower yields thanks to the ceasefire news are giving silver a bit of a boost. Silver gets affected by changes in people’s appetite for taking on risk – and also how much they think oil is worth.
The Underlying Fundamentals
Silver is heading towards its sixth year in a row of having a supply deficit in 2026 (that’s predicted to be around 46-67 million ounces). That industrial demand (think solar panels, electric vehicles etc) is actually pretty stable, even if its slowing a bit, while the lack of silver on hand is keeping physical tightness going strong. Retail investors are expected to keep on buying in.
At the moment though the price of silver is being driven a lot more by what’s going on in the Middle East than by the underlying fundamentals. Market analysts are saying we can expect some big price swings – with $76 to $77 being a good spot to hold onto the money, and $80 to $82 being a good spot to cash out.
What Silver (AG/USD) Looks Like on the Charts
On the 4 hour chart, silver (AG/USD) has pulled back to test the lower boundary of that ascending channel – its price is around $76.10 at the moment after not being able to keep above that $78.70 resistance level. From a technical standpoint, as long as the channel holds, this is still looking bullish. But the recent price drop and a series of lower highs is a sign that momentum isn’t really in the metal right now.
The first real make-or-break point for the price of silver is going to be that $75.50 to $75.00 zone – and that’s not just because of support – its also a spot where the channel and the 50-period moving average are going to meet. That moving average has started to start rolling over too – its sitting right above the current price, while that 200-period one is still sitting higher around $77.50 – which of course makes it a pretty big resistance level.
RSI has dropped right down into the oversold zone in the mid-30s – so there is a good chance we’re going to start seeing a bit of a bounce in the price if the support holds up.
Key Levels Right Now
- Resistance: $77.80 then $78.70, and then its a big one at $80.00
- Support: $75.50, then $75.00 and then a long way down at $72.60
Trade Idea: Buy in near that $75.50 support spot – hoping to get out at $77.80 to $78.70, and be happy to take any losses if the price drops below $75.00.
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