Yen Got a Boost From BOJ Dissenters, Then Gave It All Back

Three Bank of Japan board members voted to raise rates today. The yen jumped the moment that detail hit screens.

Written by: Sophia Cruz • Tuesday, April 28, 2026 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Three Bank of Japan board members voted to raise rates today. The yen jumped the moment that detail hit screens. Then Ueda spoke, and by the time the press conference wrapped up, the move had largely reversed. That sequence basically captures where Japanese monetary policy stands right now: hawks exist inside the building, but the governor is not one of them.

Ueda’s reasoning was familiar. The Iran conflict is still unresolved, the Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted, and he wants to see how all of that settles before committing to anything. He also said something that markets focused on: underlying inflation is currently sitting a little below the 2% target. That admission matters because it is the BOJ’s primary justification for raising rates, and if it is not quite there yet, the timeline for the next hike gets pushed out. He expects to reach that level in the back half of the year but was honest about not being able to say exactly when.

The quarterly report that came with the decision reflected the same uncertainty. Growth projections were trimmed, inflation forecasts were nudged higher, both changes pointing back to oil prices and what the war has done to Japan’s import bill. None of that is new information, but seeing it formalized in the BOJ’s own numbers reinforces why Ueda is in no rush.

On the dollar side, Iran offered to reopen the Strait if the US lifted its naval blockade. That proposal pushed risk sentiment slightly warmer earlier in the week and kept a lid on dollar strength. The catch is that Trump is reportedly not inclined to accept those terms, which means the stalemate continues and the dollar retains a floor.

Wednesday’s Fed decision is the next event on the calendar. The expectation is no change, but if Powell sounds more hawkish than the market is pricing, the dollar picks up and the yen likely gives back whatever ground it has left.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Sophia Cruz

Financial Writer - Asian & European Desks

Sophia is an experienced writer, reporter and newsdesk member, mostly on the financial sectors. For the past 5 years Sophia has covered a wide variety of topics such as the financial markets, economics, technology, fin-tech and trading. Sophia has been a part of the FX Leaders team since 2017 and works on producing valuable content and information for traders of all levels of experience.