USOIL Surges Above $105 as US-Iran Tensions Flare – Ceasefire at Risk?

Quick overview

The price of WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is hovering around $105 or $106 per barrel as of this morning on May 15, 2026, and rising fast with new clashes between Iran and the US challenging the temporary truce.

WTI Today’s Influencing Factors

1. US and Iran Clashes: The truce, a condition for the end of the war that had seen Iranian tankers resuming passage through the Strait of Hormuz a month after the cessation, is now being tested by new diplomatic disputes and the risk of blockages to shipping. This is the reason for an immediate increase in the war premium.
2. Supply Shortage Anxiety: A total cessation in shipping would affect a major part of the 20% of the world’s oil flowing through the Strait. A return to a state of affairs more prevalent before the end of fighting is a threat that is being felt in the markets for both WTI and Brent. This is the cause of the rise in prices.
3. Market Movement: With America still producing its own crude, and OPEC+ continuing their quotas, this increase in uncertainty has turned the mood around. While the normalization of Iran’s supply, and that of other states in the Gulf, was already in motion it has now been thrown into doubt.

WTI Trading Analysis

In the 2H timeframe WTI has pulled back nicely, trading at $100.34 after touching the upper channel of the price channel which stands at around $102.86. It has retraced to its middle support (in the form of red dynamic MA between $100.12 and $100.81), and is currently also respecting the secondary support in the form of the blue moving average at $98.97.

WTI’s bullish structure, in the form of a set of ascending lows inside the parallel green channel with a base at $93.87, has continued. It has reached a new high and is now consolidating in the form of a bull flag that has respected the 0.382 Fib level. The RSI is at a neutral point of 47 to 50, which has positive divergence with the downside and suggests the bears have lost a lot of their strength and that there is plenty of room for a rebound, before it reaches the oversold territory.

Resistance: $100.81 > $102.86 > $104.59 Support: $98.97 > $96.09

Suggested Buy Trade: above $100.80, targeting $102.86 to $104.59, stop below $98.97

Oil prices are once again at the whim of the situation in the Middle East. Despite the fact that the war premium has fallen as a result of the cease fire, the latest clashes between Iran and the US serve as a stark reminder of how fast war can drive oil prices up.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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