Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD at $4,553 Holds as Trump-Xi Summit Loom – Rate Cut Hopes Fade?

As of May 15, 2026, spot gold (XAU/USD) remains around $4,553.43 per ounce and is currently consolidating after hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data. Gold is down slightly 0.03% at this point.

Current Drivers

• The April CPI came in hot. Headline inflation jumped 0.6% over the month and 3.8% from last year, its highest pace in almost three years. Core CPI also topped expectations, weighing on the near-term Fed rate cut odds and boosting the dollar and real rates.

• The U.S. conditional ceasefire with Iran has held for over a month. Some tanker traffic has now resumed via the Strait of Hormuz. This has eased the short-term geopolitical risk premium. The truce remains very fragile.

• Gold reserves purchases by China’s PBOC has now gone over 17 months in a row. And gold purchases in emerging markets are generally picking up, which has been acting as a big support factor as central banks diversify reserves.

• Tomorrow we get Retail Sales and we will see any breakthroughs from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing. Weak retail numbers would likely spark hopes that the Fed will cut rates sooner than the market now expects, but a positive development from the Trump-Xi talks will likely lead to improved risk sentiment.

Gold (XAU/USD) technical analysis

Gold’s daily bar on the 2H chart looks like a nice bullish hammer formed on retest of black ascending trendline support from early-May lows at around 4508. Price action is now above the mid-line of the channel as well as the blue MA dynamic trend line at 4695.

Higher lows remain valid after 0.236 Fib breakout. The bullish flag is being respected at lower channel border. The impulsive wave has been respected as the blue rising trendline.

RSI has been around 48 to 52 (neutral zone), but positive divergence formed on the latest dip is confirming that buyers are now back and there’s still room for an upward breakout. Next major resistance stands at 4724, and after that there are 4762/4798.

Resistance: 4724 then 4762 then 4798

Support: 4502 then 4432

Trade Idea: Buy above 4560 with stop at 4502 and target 4638 to 4711. We are seeing Gold consolidating and waiting to find out what direction the geopolitical tension will go, now that Iran ceasefire has been going on for over a month.

At the same time, it has been a difficult week after the CPI and there’s still macro uncertainty. However, long term, the PBOC and EM buying has been strong over the last year plus and gold is always seen as a inflation hedge. That’s why we think the outlook is more constructive on Gold in the longer term.