WTI Crude Price Forecast: Can Triangle Support Save Oil Price Levels Near $91?

Quick overview

U.S. WTI crude oil (USOIL) is currently experiencing a significant technical convergence while the global economy prepares for monetary easing. USOIL price is trading at $91.41, with a modest 0.48% uptick recorded on the daily. The USOIL price is under extreme compression and is testing a lower trend line of a huge symmetrical triangle pattern from the USOIL 4H chart, as the geopolitical heat decreases. It will have to be weighed with the impending rate of change in monetary policy from major oil producers.

Main Drivers of The Day

1. The Seven-Week U.S.-Iran Truce Continues Crude throughput through the Strait of Hormuz has increased to 75 to 80% of the peak prior to the crisis, which is slowly draining the price of immediate war risks. This is however constrained as repairs are ongoing.
2. Upcoming OPEC+ Meeting The oil markets now focus on the OPEC+ ministers meeting on June 7. As the UAE exits OPEC, a 188,000-barrel-per-day increase in production in July, which is expected to be confirmed by seven core members of the organization.
3. New Federal Reserve Chair Sworn In With the U.S. April inflation coming in at a scorching 3.8% year-over-year, the expectations for 2026 interest rate cuts have completely dissolved as a new Fed chairperson Kevin Warsh was sworn in.

WTI Crude Oil Price Technical Analysis

The USOIL price is in range formation, as displayed on the USOIL 4H chart. The USOIL is being rejected off its upper counter trend line and is now bouncing off of its lower trend line (the green one) at $91.41 in a crucial test of support.

The past several USOIL price sessions have been bearish as prices were hammered to the $90.09 to $91.41 horizontal demand zone. The 14-period relative strength index is in oversold condition between 31.97 and 39.33, as indicated by a positive divergence. This is a very oversold condition that suggests a breakout is imminent.

Resistance:

• The next key resistance level is $96.00.
• Other resistance level is $98.62 (red trendline).
• The major structural resistance is $112.00.

Support:

• The first immediate support level is $91.41 (green trendline).
• The second immediate support level is the $90.09 (horizontal support).
• The final support level is $85.81.

USOIL Trade Idea

There may be a breakout trade forming in the USOIL.

Entry: Buy stop as long as the USOIL closes above $96.00. Exit: $98.62 (Target 1), $104.50 (Target 2). Stop Loss: Placed strictly beneath the key structural support floor at $90.09.

Conclusion

WTI crude oil is likely in a post-geopolitical event consolidation, testing multiple trend lines in a key pattern. Non-OPEC U.S. and Guyana supply has increased significantly. However, deep decadal under investments in oil prevent the market from collapsing. As we wait for the crucial EIA Oil Stock report on next week, we will be in a high compression pattern. Trade the USOIL using the clear triangle structure ahead of the likely OPEC+ supply rate decision in June.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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