Silver Price Forecast: $67.35 Breakout Target Anchors to 2H Dynamic Support Zone

Quick overview

With the international industrial metals complex in the midst of an aggressive and structural counterattack, secondary monetary derivatives have once again moved higher to reclaim the main accumulation clusters identified during intraday price action. Silver prices rallied +2.24% to trade within the $65.56 / $66.33 per troy ounce interval during the first half of the afternoon trading session on Monday, June 22, 2026.

Major solar manufacturing procurement teams and industrial commodity allocators have utilized the post-FOMC price flush to gain physical access at current levels, effectively bypassing paper-driven liquidations.

Sixth Consecutive Deficit Year Provides Structural Buffer

A sixth year of consecutive supply shortages provides a key structural underpinning to the market’s bullish case. According to the recent Silver Institute report, the silver market remains within its sixth year of structural supply deficit, with this year’s deficit projected to rise an additional 15% to 46.3 million troy ounces.

With approximately 70% of mine supply coming from mining operations of primary base metals such as lead, zinc, and copper, miners are unable to increase supply levels quickly.

At the same time, high-performance industrial consumers (server and computer infrastructure, communications and telecommunications, automotive, and solar photovoltaic modules) are absorbing large portions of physical silver that are largely removed from any paper market activity.

Hawkish Warsh Monetary Debut Limits Speculative Margins

In contrast, the derivatives market has recently experienced more difficult macro conditions after the June 16–17 FOMC meeting announced the first policy action from newly appointed FOMC chairman Kevin Warsh. Chair Warsh indicated that his rules-based, market-focused macro outlook would not allow the Fed to cut the federal funds rate while sticky prices, as reflected by an unchanged 4.1% YoY core CPI reading and higher 6.5% YoY PPI print, remain in the picture.

The Warsh Fed’s decision to maintain a restrictive interest rate stance (3.50% to 3.75%) and to remove any remaining hopes for further rate cuts this autumn resulted in continued upward pressure on real rates and the U.S. dollar.

The higher cost of capital has presented significant upside risk to non-producing assets in a wide range of markets, and this has resulted in the recent loss of speculative momentum in the metals sector, with prices for silver now trading at levels equivalent to the current production cost for producers.

Switzerland Signing Ceremony Cools Headline Inflation Shocks

Meanwhile, geopolitical headwinds have eased further following the June 19 signing ceremony in Switzerland that confirmed the U.S.-Iran interim “Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding” peace settlement.

The release of a significant portion of maritime capacity that has been stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, a major conduit of petroleum shipping, has lifted the percentage of commercial shipping channels back up to approximately 85% of normal levels, with the front-month crude oil contract trading just below $80 per barrel.

Though easing energy-driven headline inflation has curtailed fear-led safe-haven premiums in the near term, it has greatly steadied the cost of production for factories worldwide. That bodes well for silver’s heavily industrial usage, delivering a clear path for buyers of the metal in the industrial hubs with the largest manufacturing volumes in Asia.

Technical Analysis: XAGUSD Blasts Off Major Support in Descending Channel

Abandoning structural issues in favor of the 2H technical analysis chart, silver’s recent retracement shows a classic reversal off major dynamic support levels.

• The rebound off Support: The XAGUSD pair ($66.33) has bounced strongly from a green volume reversal candle inside the major support level at $63.31, along a key multiple-month black rising trendline. This suggests that a strong macro level of support is forming.
• Overhead MAs: Near-term upside attempts will face resistance from the 2H EMA50 (downward-sloping) at $67.01 and 2H EMA200 at $69.75. Those are the technical barriers silver must overcome in this setup.
• Neutral oscillators: The RSI (14) has now swung back to the mid-range 50. The strong move from oversold levels is also accompanied by a flattening MACD histogram, indicating short term weakness from sellers.
• Setup for execution: There are two main points to consider for trades:
• Rebound Long: Buy the recovery candle (above $65.82) above the main structural level and stop loss just below the black rising trendline (at $63.31) aiming for a quick follow-through in the 0.618 Fib at $67.35 and the 2H EMA50 at $67.01.
• Short breakdown: Sell on a high-volume drop below $63.31 dynamic floor, with a stop order above $66.00, with a follow-through move towards the $61.50 value area below.

Silver is undergoing a corrective cycle. With the Fed (led by Warsh) a hawkish monetarist, there may be volatility around silver as a short term asset class but a 46.3 million ounce supply deficit, strong demand for solar and AI usage, and a key support level in 2H on white metals suggests that silver is very bullish in the second part of June.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Ali Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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