Why Is Palantir Stock Falling? PLTR at $122 Before Aug 3 Earnings

Quick answer: On July 30, Palantir (PLTR) closed at $122.05, currently trading near its 52-week low. August 3rd will mark the release of their earnings, which will go to the market after the close. Palantir has a history of eight consecutive earnings beats, but their stock is down 40% from the all-time high due to selling pressure in enterprise SaaS stocks. Palantir’s free cash flow will be of great interest.

Palantir (PLTR) has formed a symmetrical triangle and is trading at $122.05. This puts them just above their 52-week low and near the market’s countdown to their August 3rd earnings. Platrir’s stock has dropped 40% from the December highs. There has been a general sell-off of enterprise SaaS stocks, and Palantir has beaten earnings estimates this entire time.

Why Palantir Stock Keeps Falling Despite Strong Growth

Palantir has beaten analysts’ estimates for the last eight quarters; however, the stock is down 14% since the May earnings, and the S&P 500 has increased. The sell-off of enterprise SaaS stocks, as well as Palantir’s valuation, is the reason for the decline. Palantir is currently trading with PLTR trailing earnings at 130-150x and with a price/sales ratio around 60x. Enterprise SaaS stocks are under the most pressure from new enterprise application features and model updates from Anthropic and OpenAI.

IBM had their worst trading day since 1987 due to softer software demand and ServiceNow stock declined while posting an earnings beat due to a miss at an elevated earnings bar. Palantir has insider sales just above $130-$137, and there is news of a significant national security contract for France with local provider ChapsVision.

The August 3 Earnings: A Beat Is Already Priced In

Revenue for Q2 is expected to be about $1.8 billion, with adjusted EPS at $0.35. There is an 87% chance at Polymarket that both of those EPS figures will be beaten. That is precisely the risk, however. With good news already priced, only substantial earnings beats coupled with higher guidance will raise the stock.

Free cash flow is the most important metric. Q1 showed free cash flow of $925 million (an increase of 150% year over year). Full year guidance was increased to $4.2–$4.4 billion. The CEO, Alex Karp, estimates free cash flow of $15–$18 billion over the next two years. For Q2, a print of over $1 billion with an increased guidance for the quarter would support that projection. For Q2, expected free cash flow is below $850 million to support the deceleration thesis.

The divergence from Wall Street is large. Among the 35 analysts, the median price target is $200, indicating a 60% increase, but 24/7 Wall St. opines a post-earnings target in the $90-$100 range, due to the earnings beat being priced in.

Palantir (PLTR)  Technical Analysis: Triangle Apex at $122

PLTR is consolidating at the $122 pivot between a descending resistance trendline and an ascending support trendline. The daily 50-EMA at $126.80 and 200-EMA at $130.70 are above the price. The daily 200-MA is at $154, reinforcing the larger downtrend. The RSI is at 40 and is below the signal line.

Resistance is projected at $126.80, $131.40, and $137.40, while support is at $120.60, $114.70, and $106.60. A break of resistance at $126.80 is expected to target $131.40 and $137.40. A break of support at $120.60 is expected to target $114.70 and $106.60. The implied earnings move is 15% and with a print from $122, $104 to $140 is expected in one session as it covers every level.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Palantir stock down in 2026?

PLTR is down 40% from its peak as its 130-150x valuation is excess with its growth while investors sell enterprise SaaS out of fear as application software is threatened by Anthropic and OpenAI features.

What is the most important number in Palantir’s August 3 earnings?

Adjusted free cash flow is the most important measuring Q1 at $925 million with an expectation to be above $1 billion with raised guidance. Below $850 million opens the discussion on deceleration.

Is PLTR a buy before earnings at $122?

Buying now ahead of the earnings report with a 15% implied move and an 87% beat expectation is very aggressive. The bull case is $200 and the bear case is a reset to $90–$100, therefore waiting for the post-earnings move is the better strategy.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Ali Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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