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October WTI Crude oil futures have shown strength so far during the U.S. session. As of this writing, WTI crude is up around 75 cents a barrel and pushing higher. October crude has experienced moderate buying over Tuesday’s high of $48.21. Will we see a return to topside resistance at $48.93?

Is $100 Crude Ever To Return?

 

Inventories

Early on in the session, my colleague Arslan went into detail on the crude oil inventory statistics and how they relate to market price. Below are this week’s official crude oil metrics:

 

Report                                    Previous         Projected          Actual

API Crude Oil Stock                -9.20M               NA                    -3.59M

EIA Crude Oil Stock                -8.95M            -3.450M              -3.327M

Both numbers show increasing supply and adequate production. The impact upon the market has been minimal. Today’s trade is moderately up, but well inside of last Friday and Monday’s established ranges.

After the fireworks surrounding WTI’s rollover from the September to October contract, the market is entering a rotational phase. Last week’s range will be the key moving forward. Until we trade above $49.31 or below $46.62, it will be challenging to confirm a directional move.

 

Bottom Line: October crude continues to trade with heavy volumes. In such a charged market, key psyche levels such as $50.00 are often magnets. If you are interested in capitalizing upon the market's psychological underpinnings, take a look at trading strategies centered around market sentiment.