Netflix (NFLX) Stock Price Forecast: Can Earnings Finally End the 2026 Selloff?

Quick overview

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares are hovering around $73.75 on Wednesday ahead of the company’s Q2 earnings release on July 16 following the closing bell. Shares have declined over 20% this year as investors wonder if the company can achieve double-digit growth rates now that its password-sharing crackdown has already been priced into the market along with subscription price hikes. With earnings and profit still in good shape, investors will now focus on advertising, audience engagement and second-half 2026 outlook from management.

Why Netflix Stock is in the News

The company projects $12.57 billion in second-quarter sales, up about 13.5% year over year, and analysts anticipate a profit of around $0.79 per share. That would be another quarter of healthy growth, but investors are not going to lose sleep over whether Netflix narrowly misses or exceeds Wall Street forecasts; the main focus will be on forward guidance.

Netflix continues to deliver strong operational performance, with first-quarter revenue growing 16% to $12.25 billion. Operating margin improved to 32.3% thanks to a combination of subscriber additions, price hikes and advertising growth.

Guiding for $50.7 billion to $51.7 billion in full-year 2026 revenue and a 31.5% operating margin, the company indicated confidence that profitability will remain solid as competition heats up.

Key Long-Term Revenue Drivers: Ads and Engagement

A larger advertising business has become an important long-term component of Netflix’s growth thesis.

The company expects to see its ad revenue grow at a rapid pace to about $3 billion in 2026, buoyed by more people signing up for its ad-supported tier of Netflix and an expanding base of advertisers. Over 60% of new sign-ups opted for the ad-supported plan in the first quarter across eligible countries. There are more than 4,000 advertisers on the platform now.

Netflix also is focused on keeping audiences engaged through original content, live sports, and other special event programming. The idea is that by delivering content people want to see for more hours per week, Netflix can raise prices and keep the platform competitive against other streaming services, social media and gaming. However, the platform continues to face a growing number of competitors in the entertainment industry, so maintaining engagement will be one of the most important metrics to watch for in earnings day.

Netflix (NFLX) Stock Forecast: Triangle Compression Signals Breakout Opportunity

As we scan through the 4-hour timeframe, NFLX stock price stands at $73.75 and sits in a compression triangle following a long downtrend. While price forms higher swings against an ascending trendline, it’s capped within a descending trendline of lower highs, keeping price action somewhat compressed in an increasingly narrow trading range. This formation could lead to a high-conviction bullish or bearish breakout soon.

The 50-period exponential moving average at $74.86 and a descending trendline resistance at $75.39 serve as resistance to NFLX stock today. A decisive close above $75.39 on the 4-hour timeframe might push stock towards $78.02, and then $80.06, an important round number. In a breakdown, NFLX stock price could find buying interest at $72.96, which is also the current support, and fall as low as $70.72 in the medium term. RSI is hovering around $45 on the 4-hour timeframe, which means neither bulls nor bears are in control at the moment.

The general bullish or bearish sentiment in Netflix (NFLX) stock remains neutral, so the best play right now is to wait for the price to break out of this compression triangle. A successful rally over the $75.39 level could lead to a $78.02 move over the medium term. However, a fall below $72.96 on the 4-hour timeframe could take NFLX stock as low as $70.72.

The Bottom Line

• Netflix shares will report second-quarter earnings on July 16, with the focus on guidance rather than headline numbers.
• Ad revenue, pricing power and user engagement will drive long-term growth at Netflix.
• Profitability and free cash flow remain healthy despite a slower revenue growth profile for the streaming company.
• Investors should monitor $75.39 resistance and $72.96 support as NFLX comes close to a move higher.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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