At 6:00 pm GMT today the FED FOMC meeting minutes will be released and we will get a chance to see what the FED mob was chatting about during the July meeting. Do they even talk about the economy at these meetings? I bet they were talking about the Olympics and placing their bets, although the Olympics hadn´t started yet. Anyway, let´s try and figure out the odds of the next rate hike and place our bets.
The FED statement about three weeks ago was sort of neutral. It acknowledged that the global risks and uncertainties have diminished apart from Brexit. But, there were too many if´s and but´s in that statement which makes it really unclear when the next rate hike will come. Mind you, the pre-written statement tends to smooth down the opinions and arguments/debates that FED members might have had during the meeting.
Personally, I expect the FOMC minutes to be more hawkish. We´ll get to see which FED members were the hawks this time and who were the doves. I also like to see/hear the reasoning behind everyone´s positioning. So, after two weeks of USD downtrend, I expect the USD to make a move higher on some hawkish comments. But, if there´s not enough talk of an interest rate hike, then the move higher will fade and the downtrend will resume. That´s my take on the FOMC minutes, but we must carefully read between the lines.
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