Finally, the day of the first public debate in the US presidency run is here. The poll results have been getting tighter recently and right now it´s almost a tie between both candidates. Donald Trump has been using Hillary Clinton´s health condition to get a few points, which many thought would backfire. But instead, he´s been narrowing down a much wider gap.
Looks like the same scenario that happened in the UK with Brexit is unfolding in the US electoral campaign. Instead of Joe Cox who was murdered, Hillary´s health is the odd factor here. It´s a health (existential) matter in both cases, both of the subjects are women and both opposing candidates have funny white hair. Feels like Deja vu.
The debate will kick off at 01:00 GMT, 02:00 London time, 03:00 Central European time, 21:00 eastern US time etc, you do the calculations if you live outside of these time zones. At first thought, the Buck could suffer if Trump outperforms Clinton. He´s protectionist rhetoric has been growing and any advancement by Trump would raise some concerns among companies and investors about possible trade wars.
But the real factor which will affect the USD is the fiscal stimulus the candidates are planning to use. The market is expecting both candidates to initiate a fiscal package when either of them comes to power, in order to give the US economy another push. That would be considered as positive for the USD because it would stimulate the US economy further.
So, if we see glitches in today´s debate about the stimulus package from either candidate, then we expect some weakness in the USD which might last a few sessions.
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