April 23 – 27: Economic Events Outlook – BOJ & ECB Rates In Highlights

Posted Monday, April 23, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 3 min read

Bolstered by rising US bond yields, the dollar traded near a two-week high compared to other major currencies. Moreover, the easing concerns over global political tensions are driving bulls to the greenback. This week continues to be volatile in the wake of interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank. 

Watchlist – Top Economic Events This Week

Monday – April 23

US Dollar – USD

Existing Home Sales – At 14:00 (GMT), the National Association of Realtors will be releasing the existing home sales data. This is an annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction. It’s forecasted to be 5.55M vs. 5.54M in Feb. The dollar could stay supported until the event is released today.

Tuesday – April 24

Australian Dollar – AUD

CPI y/y – The Australian Bureau of Statistics will be releasing the inflation figures tomorrow at 1:30 (GMT). As we know, inflation shows a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The CPI & Core CPI (Trimmed) figures for the first quarter of 2018 are expected to be 0.5% in the headline and 0.5% in the core.

This event is worth trading during the Asian session. The market may trade sideways after this event, until the release of the US consumer confidence data.

US Dollar – USD

CB Consumer Confidence – At 14:00 (GMT), the Conference Board Inc will release consumer confidence figures. This is the consumers’ financial confidence in the economy. This is a survey of about 5k households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation. As per the forecast, the consumer confidence is projected to score 126 points vs. 127.7 in February. This can place bearish pressure on the dollar.

Wednesday – April 25

Canadian Dollar – CAD

BOC Gov Poloz is due to testify along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade, and Commerce, in Ottawa at 20:15 (GMT). Investors will be listening for any remarks about upcoming policy in support of trade and commerce activities. Volatility is expected during the speech.  

Thursday- April 26

Eurozone – EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Event – On Thursday, the European Central Bank will release the minimum bid rate at 11:45 (GMT) along with a press conference at 12:30 (GMT). The ECB is widely expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.00%. However, Draghi’s press conference could move the Euro. We need to see what Mario Draghi has to say about the bond-buying programs.

Considering the hawkishness from the other central bankers, the ECB is expected to keep hawkish tone. Any mention of tapering down the bond-buying program is going to drive massive bullishness in the Euro. Check out FX Leaders strategy on Trading the Central Banks for useful information.

Friday – April 27

Japanese Yen – JPY

BOJ Monetary Policy Event – The Bank of Japan is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged -0.10%. The Japanese economy was fighting with the deflationary risk and thus kept the monetary policy ultra-loose. The ongoing geopolitical tensions boosted the demand for haven assets and caused the recent strength in Japanese Yen. The BOJ is likely to continue buying bonds in order to keep the 10-year yield at 0%. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda doesn’t like a stronger yen as it hurts Japanese exporters. Any change in policy will come as surprise and may cause massive volatility.

Great Britain Pound – GBP

Prelim GDP q/q – On Friday, the Office for National Statistics is forecasted to release the figure at 8:30 (GMT). The GDP figure is expected to drop to 0.3% vs. a rise to 0.4% in the previous quarter. The Sterling is likely to trade under bearish pressure on sentiment as the BOE will be forced to keep the rates on hold until economic events get better.

Summing Up – This week is going to be exciting for day traders as we have an incredible number of economic events which could change the market trends. Brace yourself for volatility and check out FX Leaders’ News Trading Strategy for a better understanding of fundamentals. Have an awesome week.

 

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About the author

Arslan Butt is our Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt is our Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst. Arslan is a professional market analyst and day trader. He holds an MBA in Behavioral Finance and is working towards his Ph.D. Before joining FX Leaders Arslan served as a senior analyst in a major brokerage firm. Arslan is also an experienced instructor and public speaker.
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