April 23 – 27: Economic Events Outlook – BOJ & ECB Rates In Highlights
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
Bolstered by rising US bond yields, the dollar traded near a two-week high compared to other major currencies. Moreover, the easing concerns over global political tensions are driving bulls to the greenback. This week continues to be volatile in the wake of interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank.
Watchlist – Top Economic Events This Week
Monday – April 23
US Dollar – USD
Existing Home Sales – At 14:00 (GMT), the National Association of Realtors will be releasing the existing home sales data. This is an annualized number of residential buildings that were sold during the previous month, excluding new construction. It’s forecasted to be 5.55M vs. 5.54M in Feb. The dollar could stay supported until the event is released today.
Tuesday – April 24
Australian Dollar – AUD
CPI y/y – The Australian Bureau of Statistics will be releasing the inflation figures tomorrow at 1:30 (GMT). As we know, inflation shows a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. The CPI & Core CPI (Trimmed) figures for the first quarter of 2018 are expected to be 0.5% in the headline and 0.5% in the core.
This event is worth trading during the Asian session. The market may trade sideways after this event, until the release of the US consumer confidence data.
US Dollar – USD
CB Consumer Confidence – At 14:00 (GMT), the Conference Board Inc will release consumer confidence figures. This is the consumers’ financial confidence in the economy. This is a survey of about 5k households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation. As per the forecast, the consumer confidence is projected to score 126 points vs. 127.7 in February. This can place bearish pressure on the dollar.
Wednesday – April 25
Canadian Dollar – CAD
BOC Gov Poloz is due to testify along with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins before the Standing Senate Committee on Banking, Trade, and Commerce, in Ottawa at 20:15 (GMT). Investors will be listening for any remarks about upcoming policy in support of trade and commerce activities. Volatility is expected during the speech.
Thursday- April 26
Eurozone – EUR
ECB Monetary Policy Event – On Thursday, the European Central Bank will release the minimum bid rate at 11:45 (GMT) along with a press conference at 12:30 (GMT). The ECB is widely expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.00%. However, Draghi’s press conference could move the Euro. We need to see what Mario Draghi has to say about the bond-buying programs.
Considering the hawkishness from the other central bankers, the ECB is expected to keep hawkish tone. Any mention of tapering down the bond-buying program is going to drive massive bullishness in the Euro. Check out FX Leaders strategy on Trading the Central Banks for useful information.
Friday – April 27
Japanese Yen – JPY
BOJ Monetary Policy Event – The Bank of Japan is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged -0.10%. The Japanese economy was fighting with the deflationary risk and thus kept the monetary policy ultra-loose. The ongoing geopolitical tensions boosted the demand for haven assets and caused the recent strength in Japanese Yen. The BOJ is likely to continue buying bonds in order to keep the 10-year yield at 0%. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda doesn’t like a stronger yen as it hurts Japanese exporters. Any change in policy will come as surprise and may cause massive volatility.
Great Britain Pound – GBP
Prelim GDP q/q – On Friday, the Office for National Statistics is forecasted to release the figure at 8:30 (GMT). The GDP figure is expected to drop to 0.3% vs. a rise to 0.4% in the previous quarter. The Sterling is likely to trade under bearish pressure on sentiment as the BOE will be forced to keep the rates on hold until economic events get better.
Summing Up – This week is going to be exciting for day traders as we have an incredible number of economic events which could change the market trends. Brace yourself for volatility and check out FX Leaders’ News Trading Strategy for a better understanding of fundamentals. Have an awesome week.