AUD/USD turned bullish at the beginning of this month, after forming a pin candlestick at the bottom, which is a reversing signal. The trend was pretty strong and moving averages couldn’t keep up in the first week; only last week, the 20 SMA (grey) caught up with the price and immediately turned into support, pushing this pair higher.

Last week, the sellers tried to get active, but the buyers still had things on their hands, as the lows kept getting higher and the highs were crawling higher still. So, the trend was still intact, but it slowed down considerably which was a sign that this week we might see a bearish reversal.

Yesterday we saw a pullback lower, but the trend was still on since the 50 SMA (yellow) was providing support on the H4 chart. That moving average was broken today though as the USD gained some momentum. You could argue that this was due to risk aversion in financial markets, but safe havens have been sliding lower in the last few sessions, so it’s more of a USD strength.

Although, this pair is finding support above the 100 SMA (red) now and the previous candlestick closed as a doji, which is a reversing signal. The chart setup points to a bullish reversal now, but the USD still remains bid. But, if the buyers manage to pull a reversal soon, then this month’s bullish trend might resume once again. We are long already on this pair since yesterday, so we are hoping for such a reversal, but let’s see if it will happen.