Forex Signals Brief for August 15: More Covid Closures in China and Rate Hikes
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
Last week markets were concerned about the US inflation reports, with the CPI (consumer price index) and the PPI (producer price idex) reports for July being scheduled by midweek. The CPI numbers showed a slowdown in consumer prices, while the PPI report showed a retreat last month, suggesting that consumer inflation will likely retreat in the coming months as well.
The USD declined as the odds of a 75 bps rate hike by the FED in September declined too. Risk assets moved higher s the sentiment improved, although on Friday the risk trade faded eventually. The GDP report from the UK showed a contraction in June, while led to a contraction in Q2, strengthening the scenario of a global recesssion, especially with the new lockdowns in China.
Speaking of China, the communist government has brought back lockdowns in certain parts of the country, while the banking sector is melting, with the public being unable to retreat their deposits and public protests. This will weigh further on the global economic sentiment.
The Canadian CPI inflation report is scheduled for Tuesday this week, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver another 50 bps rate hike on Wednesday. Core retail sales are also on the agenda toward the end of the week, which will show the shape of the consumer.
Forex Signals Update
Last week markets were uncertain in the first half, as traders were waiting for the US inflation reports. The volatility picked up since Wednesday as inflation numbers started coming out and we were having some difficulties, although we picked up the game and closed several winning signals toward the end of the week, having particular success with crude Oil signals and cryptocurrency signals.
WTI Oil – Sell Signals
Crude Oil continues to remain bearish since reversal by the middle of June, despite the retrace higher last week, which already finished by Friday and WTI started reversing lower. We continue to keep a bearish bias, opening many sell Oil signals, which have closed in profit, even during the uptrend as we saw last week.
US crude Oil – Daily chart
EUR/USD – Bearish Bias
EUR/USD has been bearish since the beginning of the year, as the FED started hiking interest rates, while the ECB remained on hold until July. We’ve been keeping a bearish bias and will continue to remain bearish, especially as the retrace higher ended last week.
EUR/USD – Daily chart
Cryptocurrencies remained bullish last week as they continued to make higher highs. Ethereum climbed above $2,000 while Bitcoin increased above $25,000. In recent days we have seen a small retreat, but it seems weak and we’re getting ready to buy cryptocurrencies again,
Can BITCOIN Buyers Push Above the 100 Daily SMA?
Bitcoin turned bullish again last week, resuming the uptrend after the retreat in the previous week and the support provided by the 20 SMA (gray). We opened a buy BTC signal which closed in profit as the price moved above $25,000, although the 100 SMA (green) has been acting as resistance on the daily chart.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Where Should We Buy ETHEREUM?
Ethereum remains one of the most bullish cryptocurrencies, despite the occasional pullback lower. Ethereum buyers pushed the price above $2,000 last week, although we have been seeing a pullback over the weekend. We are following the price action to see where we can buy this digital coin, either at the 50 SMA (yellow) or the 100 SMA (green).
ETH/USD – 240 minute chart