EUR/USD Hesitates Ahead of Key US Inflation Data: A Look at Central Bank Dynamics

Posted Wednesday, September 13, 2023 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

In Wednesday’s early European trading hours, the EUR/USD pair faces challenges in capitalizing on gains, hovering just below the mid-1.0700s. The financial community is proceeding with caution as they anticipate crucial US inflation statistics set for release later in the North American timeframe. As of now, the significant currency pair is marked at approximately 1.0745, reflecting a marginal decline of 0.07% for the day.

A report by Reuters suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation within the Eurozone to persist above 3% into the subsequent year. This prediction buttresses the case for an imminent and consecutive interest rate increment this Thursday. Market opinions on the ECB’s interest rate decisions have shown divergences. Nearly 40% of the investment community forecasts an interest rate enhancement during Thursday’s assembly. If these unverified ECB revelations hold water, we might witness the ECB greenlighting another rate increment this week. Such a move could bolster the Euro in its stance against the US Dollar, thereby presenting challenges for the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.

On the American front, potential ascents in the EUR/USD may be constrained as traders opt for a more reserved stance, pending the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Anticipations peg the annual rate to escalate from 3.2% to 3.6%, while the central data point is likely to diminish from 4.7% to 4.4%. This impending data has the potential to stir fluctuations within the currency pair and recalibrate expectations concerning the Federal Reserve’s fiscal strategy.

Moreover, the narrative of sustained elevated interest rates in the US could be a boon for the US Dollar.

The market consensus leans toward the Federal Reserve preserving the current interest rate bracket of 5.25%-5.50% in September, gauged at a 93% likelihood. Concurrently, based on insights from the CME Fedwatch Tool, there’s a 40.8% probability attributed to an interest rate hike come November.

Later in the day, the spotlight will be on data releases: the Eurozone’s Industrial Production metrics and the keenly observed US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. Come Thursday, the focal point will pivot to the ECB’s monetary stance and the US Retail Sales data. These events are poised to offer the EUR/USD tandem a more definitive course.

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