Forex Signals Brief Feb 19: Manufacturing and Services to Highlight the Week
Last week was mostly about inflation, with the US CPI (consumer price index) starting the bonanza on Tuesday, which came above expectations, lowering FED rate cuts odds to below 90 bps, which sent the USD surging more than 100 pips higher. The Swiss CPI, on the other hand, came below expectations, which left the CHF weak throughout the week.
The UK CPI inflation also came below expectations on Wednesday, followed by a decline in Q4 GDP, which put the UK economy in a technical recession. However, the GBP didn’t suffer too much, with the Bank of England brushing off the numbers, as they show the past. The strong UK retail sales also helped the GBP on Friday.
US retail sales, on the other hand, showed a considerable decline in January, which came after the strong PPI (Producer Price Index) on Thursday. Gold finished the week above $2,000 eventually, after dipping below this level a couple of times. Risk currencies also ended up higher at the end of the week.
This Week’s Market Expectations
This week the economic calendar is lighter, however, we have the manufacturing and services reports to be released by the middle of the week. But, the CPI (Consumer Price Index) report from Canada will be released tomorrow, as well as the FOMC minutes from the last meeting.
UPCOMING EVENTS:
- Monday: US/Canada Bank Holiday, Canada PPI Inflation.
- Tuesday: RBA Meeting Minutes, Canada CPI, New Zealand PPI.
- Wednesday: Australia Wage data, FOMC Meeting Minutes.
- Thursday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, ECB Minutes, Canada Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, New Zealand Retail Sales.
- Friday: German IFO.
This week markets were quite volatile, with a couple of strong reversals after the strong US CPI inflation and then after the soft retail sales numbers. We opened 19 forex signals in total, closing the week with 15 winning trading signals and 4 losing ones, as we tried to adapt to the volatility.
Gold Moves Above $2,000 Again
Gold dipped below the $2,000 twice last week, but reversed back above it, showing that buyers are acting around this zone. It established a bullish reversal pattern on the daily chart after finding support near the 100 SMA. XAU dipped below $2,000 on Tuesday’s bullish US CPI inflation, but the 100 SMA maintained as support, and the gold price rebounded higher in the second half of the week.
XAU/USD – Daily chart
USD/CAD Trading Between Two MAs
USD/CAD surged higher on Friday, impacted by the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation statistics for January, after finding support at the 200 SM (purple) but reversed back down on Wednesday, falling to 1.3450 by the end of the week. This report has led to an increase in the US dollar and bond rates, but sellers came back, so let’s see if the 200 SMA will hold gain this week.
USD/CAD came back down in the second half of the week
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Hold Above $5,000
BITCOIN is sustaining its upward pace, with purchasers gaining confidence as the price surpasses $50,000. Although there was a brief drop below $40,000 when the SEC authorized an ETF, Bitcoin quickly reversed course and is presently approaching the $50,000 level once more. Notably, Bitcoin outflows have increased in recent days as purchasers sell existing positions. Despite this, buyers continue to dominate, pushing the price above its January top and signaling a strong optimistic mood in the market.BTC/USD – Daily Chart
Ethereum Heading for $3,000 Again
Ethereum’s price has steadily increased following a slump in January that took it close to $2,000. Our decision to initiate a buy signal for ETH at that level paid off, as buyers returned to the market. They have succeeded to drive the price above $2,800 this week, triggering the take profit for our trade. However, the price retraced little Wednesday, dropping by $100. Despite this modest dip, the general trend for Ethereum remains favourable, with purchasers showing a significant interest in the cryptocurrency.Ethereum – Daily Chart
- ETH Buy Signal
- Entry Price: $2,290
- Stop Loss: $2,590
- Take Profit: $1,750
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