Brazil: Unemployment remained at 7.6% in January, according to new data.

The number of unemployed remains stable at 8.3 million in the quarter, a figure considered positive by most investors.

Brazil’s unemployment rate remained stable at 7.6% in the quarter ending January 2024, according to data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on Thursday (29). This figure mirrors the same level as the preceding three months, ending in October 2023 (7.6%).

Despite the good news, the Brazilian market fell due to Petrobras’ poor performance in recent days, prompted by a possible change in its dividend policy. Petrobras is Brazil’s most important oil production company and is state-controlled.

According to analysts, the data still signals strength in the labor market, including an increase in the employed population and a rise in average income. Income grew by 3.8% over the year.

The unemployment rate of 7.6% marks the lowest for quarters ending in January since 2015 (6.9%). The result slightly exceeded the median of forecasts from the financial market. Investors projected an unemployment rate of 7.8%.

The institute notes that unemployment typically declines at the end of the year and increases in the first months of the following year. However, until January 2024, this trend has not been observed, as the numbers indicate stability.

“When we talk about layoff processes, we try to evaluate this phenomenon within the entire quarter of the following year [January to March]. What we have for 2024, so far, is only the month of January,” said Adriana Beringuy, coordinator of household surveys at IBGE.

Unemployment Measurement

The unemployed population comprises individuals aged 14 and older who are without occupation and actively seeking opportunities. Those who are not actively looking for jobs, even if they are unemployed, are not included in this contingent in official statistics. The employed population with some form of work was estimated at 100.6 million in the quarter ending January.

There was a 0.4% increase compared to the previous three months (an additional 387 thousand people) and a 2% increase compared to the period ending in January 2023 (an additional 2 million people).