EUR/USD Price Outlook at $1.0826: Key PMIs and US Data Impact

On May 23, the EUR/USD pair, currently trading at $1.0826, will be influenced by several significant economic indicators.

The French Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 45.8, and the Flash Services PMI to 51.8. German PMIs are also anticipated to improve, with Manufacturing at 43.4 and Services at 53.5. US data includes Unemployment Claims, projected at 220K, and New Home Sales, forecasted to decrease to 677K.

European Economic Data

The release of the French Flash Manufacturing PMI at 7:15 AM is expected to show a slight increase to 45.8 from 45.3, while the Flash Services PMI is anticipated to rise to 51.8 from 51.3. At 7:30 AM, the German Flash Manufacturing PMI is projected to increase to 43.4 from 42.5, and the German Flash Services PMI is expected to climb to 53.5 from 53.2. These figures will be followed by the overall Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI at 8:00 AM, which is forecasted to improve to 46.2 from 45.7, and the Flash Services PMI, predicted to rise to 53.6 from 53.3.

US Economic Data

Later in the day, at 12:30 PM, US Unemployment Claims are expected to decrease slightly to 220,000 from 222,000. This will be followed by the release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI at 1:45 PM, which is anticipated to remain steady at 50.0.

The Flash Services PMI is expected to decrease slightly to 51.2 from 51.3. At 2:00 PM, the New Home Sales data will be released, with forecasts showing a slight decrease to 677,000 from 693,000.

Impact on EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is sensitive to both European and US economic data. Stronger-than-expected PMI readings from France and Germany could boost the euro, as they would indicate improved economic activity in the Eurozone’s largest economies. Conversely, weaker PMI figures could weigh on the euro.

US data will also play a crucial role. Lower-than-expected Unemployment Claims and stable or improving PMI readings could strengthen the US dollar, putting downward pressure on EUR/USD. However, disappointing US data could have the opposite effect, providing support for the euro.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD price forecast will be influenced by the outcomes of these economic releases. Traders should monitor these data points closely to assess the potential direction of the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading at $1.0826, down 0.01%. The pivot point is at $1.0832 (green line). Immediate resistance levels are at $1.0863, $1.0893, and $1.0923. Support levels are at $1.0832, $1.0803, and $1.0766.

The 4-hour chart indicates a bearish trend, with prices breaking below the upward trendline and the 50 EMA, currently at $1.08336, suggesting further downside potential. The RSI is at 46.99, showing bearish momentum.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Ali Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Ali Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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