USD to AUD Rate Remains in Range After Chinese Data

The USD to AUD rate continues to display volatility, bouncing within a 1-cent range, and last night’s Chinese data couldn’t break the range. Moving averages are keeping this forex pair confined, with the RBA and the FED remaining on hold regarding interest rates right now, but perhaps we will get a rate cut signal from the RBA this week, which will send the Aussie tumbling lower.

Economic data from China opened the new week

After the weak US CPI inflation data on Wednesday, the AUD/USD pair jumped higher, breaking above the 200 SMA, after trading in the bottom of the range the previous week. Support was found around the 100 SMA (red) on the daily chart. however The AUD/USD pair gave up some of the significant gains made in the previous session as a result of the US Dollar’s (USD) regained upside bias, which continued to reverse this pair on Wednesday night and keep the price low until the conclusion of the week.

AUD/USD Chart Daily – The 200 SMA Continues to Act As ResistanceChart AUDUSD, D1, 2024.06.16 20:22 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

Despite lower US Treasury yields, which typically weigh on the US Dollar, market participants focused on the broader implications of the Fed’s policy stance. This shift in sentiment led to renewed strength in the USD and subsequent weakness in AUD/USD. Last night we had the retail sales and the industrial production numbers for May from China.

China Retail Sales and Industrial Production Data

  • Industrial Output (YoY):
    • May: +5.6% (lower than expected)
    • April: +6.7%
    • Analysis: The industrial output growth slowed down from April, coming in below expectations, indicating some moderation in China’s industrial sector.
  • Retail Sales (YoY):
    • May: +3.7% (higher than expected)
    • April: +2.3%
    • Analysis: Retail sales saw an improvement from April, surpassing expectations. This suggests a strengthening consumer demand despite other economic challenges.
  • Fixed Asset Investment (ytd/y):
    • May: +4.0% (lower than expected)
    • April: +4.2%
    • Analysis: Fixed asset investment growth also slowed down slightly in May, falling below expectations. This includes spending on infrastructure, property, machinery, etc., indicating some cautiousness in investment activities.

AUD/USD Live Chart

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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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