Mind NFP Revisions Before Powell’s Speech at Jackson Hole
There is high interest regarding Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, but the NFP revisions might induce some volatility today. The US economy is at a stage where every sector matters, especially after the employment scare early this month, and a considerable revision lower of last month’s NFP number would bring back fears of US jobs sector being in difficulty.
Focus on Non-Farm Payrolls Revision
Due to the current state of the US economy, today’s revision of non-farm payrolls is drawing significant attention, which is somewhat unusual. Some analysts are forecasting that this revision could result in the loss of up to 1 million jobs, raising fresh concerns about the strength of the labor market just ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium. This revision is based on state unemployment insurance tax records, which cover nearly all jobs in the US, and a June report suggested that job growth may have been less robust than previously thought.
Goldman Sachs Non-Farm Payrolls Revisions Expectations
Potential NFP Impact and Market Speculation
However, these figures only cover the fiscal year ending in March, so they aren’t particularly recent. Current estimates suggest that 2.9 million jobs were created during that period, averaging around 240,000 per month. While the revision has sparked considerable interest, it remains uncertain how much of it has been priced into the market or what the exact expectations are. For example, JPMorgan is anticipating a loss of around 360,000 jobs.
It’s worth noting that the QCEW report, which the revisions rely on, might be less reliable than non-farm payrolls since it doesn’t account for undocumented workers, who are not eligible for unemployment insurance. Overall, this revision might turn out to be a non-event for the markets, but given the recent lull in major news, it’s likely to draw a lot of attention.
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