Volatility in USD to NZD Rate As Price Reverses Lower

The USD to NZD rate continues to display volatility, with NZD/USD surging 4.5 cents higher during August, but reversing lower in the last two weeks. The price reversed at the 100 SMA on the weekly chart which has been acting as resistance before, so it looks like the trend is changing, after two bearish weekly candlesticks.

NZD/USD Chart Weekly – Buyers Slowing ahead of the 100 SMA

By late August, buyers managed to push NZD/USD above the 100-weekly SMA, which had previously acted as a resistance level, marking the pair’s peak in 2024. However, the gains above this moving average were limited as buyers started showing signs of exhaustion. In September, the price dropped back below the 100 SMA (red) on the weekly chart, a key level that had triggered bearish reversals in 2022 and 2023. It continues to cap the highs, maintaining a downward trend for the pair.

• Bearish Reversal Emerging: A potential bearish reversal pattern appears on the weekly chart, with the stochastic indicator showing overbought conditions. The price has already fallen by 1.5 cents, and historically, overbought stochastic levels have been reliable signals for upcoming reversals lower.
• Recent Pullback: Last week, ahead of the US NFP release, the price was in retreat, but after the jobs data was released, NZD/USD plunged, hitting the target level at 0.6120.
• Upcoming Targets: The next key support levels for the pair are the 0.6070 zone and the significant 0.60 barrier, which may act as further downside targets if bearish momentum continues.

New Zealand Manufacturing Sales for Q2

• Q2 Manufacturing sales rose by +0.1% QoQ
• Q1 Manufacturing sales 0.7%, revised to 0.8%

NZD/USD Live Chart