“JPMorgan Declares: ‘Argentina’s Recession Is Over'”
The U.S. bank highlighted that Argentina’s economy has been recovering steadily, with a “solid rebound” in the third quarter.
JPMorgan reaffirmed its optimistic stance on Argentina’s economic outlook in its latest report, declaring that the country’s recession is over. According to the report, the solid recovery seen in September aligns with the bank’s earlier projections that economic activity would rebound sequentially in the third quarter.
The Wall Street giant stated, “Although activity declined during the month, the quarter ended with a very strong rebound, marking the end of the recession that the economy had endured since August 2023—or March 2023 if we exclude the recovery months driven by the fiscal stimulus known as the ‘Plan Platita.’”
Argentina is Starting to Grow Again
The report emphasized that this growth should not come as a surprise given the low levels of real economic activity seen in the second quarter (comparable to 2010 levels) and the increase in national savings by approximately 5% of GDP, driven by this year’s fiscal adjustments.
In September, seasonally adjusted real economic activity fell 0.3% month-over-month (-3.3% year-over-year). However, the quarter ended on a strong note, with annualized quarterly growth of 14.3%. Following data revisions, activity by the end of Q3 was nearly 4% above the cyclical low seen in April and now stands 1% higher than December 2023 levels.
“In other words, the recession is over, and activity has been recovering at an annualized rate of 9.7% since April,” the report concluded.
The recovery has been driven primarily by sectors such as manufacturing (+6.3% seasonally adjusted), construction (+5.2%), trade (+4.3%), tourism (+4.9%), and financial intermediation (+11.3%). Meanwhile, public administration, transportation, and other sectors contracted during this period.
Milei Meets Arthur Laffer: “Get Rid of Capital Controls”
On Tuesday, Argentine President Javier Milei met with renowned U.S. economist Arthur Laffer, an advisor to former President Donald Trump. At a recent event, Laffer had offered Milei some blunt advice: “That’s your problem. You need to eliminate all capital controls. People need to feel confident that if they lend you money or invest in your country, they will be able to take it out.”
Laffer also commented on Argentina’s relationship with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to which the country owes over $44 billion. He called for the abolition of the institution and an end to Argentina’s dependence on it. “The IMF has ruined one country after another… The sooner we get the IMF out of their back pocket, the better off everyone will be,” he asserted.
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