WTI Crude Climbs to $75: Is a Breakout on the Horizon?

WTI crude oil futures are up again today, near $75. This is a big bounce, just shy of 3 month highs as bulls are in control.

It’s driven by declining US crude inventories and tightening global supply.

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API says US crude inventories fell 4.022 million barrels last week, way more than the 0.25 million barrel forecast. If confirmed by the government numbers, this would be the 4th week in a row and 7th in 12 weeks, the longest streak in 3 years.

And Western sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports are getting tighter so demand for Middle Eastern oil is increasing. Saudi Arabia raised prices to Asian buyers for the first time in 3 months. All this plus colder weather in US and Europe boosting heating oil demand is keeping oil prices supported.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Resistance Levels to Watch

WTI Crude Oil is in an uptrend channel, a bullish pattern of higher lows and higher highs. Prices are consolidating around $74.61, pivot at $74.10.

Resistance at $74.73 where a double top is the key test for the bulls. A break above this level could lead to more upside to $75.34 and then $76.04. Failure to break this level could lead to a pullback.

Support at $73.43 where the 50 period EMA is, then $73.23 and $72.67. RSI is neutral, so room for movement in either direction.

WTI Crude Oil Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
WTI Crude Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

Outlook: Supply Trends and Risks Ahead

Global supply constraints are likely to remain a major factor influencing crude oil prices. China’s recent decision to ban U.S.-sanctioned oil vessels at Shandong Port is further straining supply chains, while Western sanctions on Russia and Iran continue to tighten the market.

Despite bullish sentiment, traders should remain cautious. A sustained breakout above $74.73 is crucial to confirm continued upward momentum. Conversely, failure to hold above this level could see prices retesting support zones.

Key Insights:

  • Immediate Resistance: $74.73; Next levels: $75.34 and $76.04.
  • Immediate Support: $73.43; Lower supports: $73.23 and $72.67.
  • Tightened global supply and inventory drops are providing strong support for prices.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More
Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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