Wall Street Ends Mixed Ahead of Fed’s Interest Rate Decision
Energy stocks outperformed, led by Exxon Mobil, which rose 1.9% after raising its earnings and cash-flow outlook for 2024–2030.
Quick overview
- U.S. private payrolls increased by 4,750 jobs, potentially dampening expectations for another rate cut in 2026.
- Wall Street's main indexes ended mixed as the Federal Reserve began its two-day monetary policy meeting, with a high probability of a rate cut.
- Concerns from policymakers about a third rate cut amid limited economic data due to a government shutdown could complicate the Fed's decision.
- Nvidia's stock was in focus after President Trump announced it could sell AI chips to China, while Exxon Mobil's shares rose following an improved earnings outlook.
U.S. private payrolls increased by 4,750 jobs, which could dampen expectations for another rate cut in 2026.
Wall Street’s main indexes ended mixed on Tuesday as the Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day monetary policy meeting, which is widely expected to conclude on Wednesday with the third interest-rate cut of the year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% to 47,560.81, the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% to 6,839.51, while the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.1% to 23,576.49.
Is the rate cut a done deal?
According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut now stands at about 89%.
However, with several policymakers recently voicing concerns about delivering a third cut since September—particularly at a time when economic data has been limited due to a record-long government shutdown—this could become one of the Fed’s most contentious decisions in years.
There are also high expectations for an “aggressive cut” in Wednesday night’s FOMC decision.
Fresh labor data could temper expectations for further easing
Tuesday’s data suggests the FOMC may try to curb expectations of additional cuts in the coming year. U.S. private payrolls increased by an average of 4,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending November 22, according to ADP’s weekly update to its monthly National Employment Report.
Job openings also ticked up slightly in October, rising by 12,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The BLS will release its delayed November nonfarm payrolls report—a key indicator—on December 16. October’s unemployment rate will never be formally published due to the shutdown but was last estimated near a four-year high of 4.4% in September.
Stocks in focus and notable earnings
Much of the day’s attention centered on Nvidia (-0.3%) after President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social that he will allow the company to sell its H200 AI chips to authorized clients in China and other countries, though subject to a 25% tariff and safeguards to protect U.S. national security.
Trump said he had informed Chinese President Xi Jinping of the decision, which Xi reportedly welcomed. Nvidia’s H200, introduced in 2023 as the successor to the H100, is estimated to be roughly six times more powerful than the H20—the most advanced AI chip Nvidia is currently allowed to sell to China.
Energy stocks outperformed, led by Exxon Mobil, which rose 1.9% after raising its earnings and cash-flow outlook for 2024–2030.
AutoZone fell 7.2% after reporting quarterly results that missed analysts’ expectations.
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