Gold Price Prediction: $3,730 Tested as Jobs and PMI Data Stir Market Nerves
Gold spent the week consolidating at $3,759 after reaching $3,791, with traders wondering if momentum will continue or if a pullback...
Quick overview
- Gold is currently consolidating around $3,759 after reaching a high of $3,791, with uncertainty about future momentum.
- Recent US economic data, including strong housing sales and resilient labor market figures, has capped gold's upside despite initial safe-haven flows.
- Key technical levels for gold include immediate support at $3,730 and resistance at $3,791, with potential downside risk if it breaks below $3,712.
- Upcoming US data releases next week will be crucial for gold and silver prices, with several indicators that could influence market sentiment.
Gold spent the week consolidating at $3,759 after reaching $3,791, with traders wondering if momentum will continue or if a pullback is due. The metal held up despite a wave of US economic data that boosted the dollar and volatility in precious metals.
Business activity softened, with Flash Manufacturing PMI at 52.0 vs 52.2 expected and Services PMI at 53.9 vs 54.5. That weakness initially triggered safe-haven flows. But strong housing data — new home sales at 800K vs 650K expected — and a 3.8% Q2 GDP surprise shifted sentiment back to US strength, capping gold’s upside.
Labor market data reinforced the dollar’s edge, with jobless claims at 218K vs 232K, showing resilience. Inflation was steady, with Core PCE at 0.2%, keeping traders focused on the Fed.
Gold Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
On the 4-hour chart, gold is holding the ascending trendline from mid-September. Fibonacci retracements at $3,730 (38.2%) and $3,712 (50%) are key support.
Candlestick signals show hesitation. Multiple upper wicks at $3,790 are resistance, and Friday’s red candle indicates fading buying conviction. RSI is at 57, neutral momentum, with the 50-SMA at $3,715 a safety net.
- Immediate support: $3,730 and $3,712
- Resistance zone: $3,791, with extensions to $3,815 and $3,838
- Downside risk: Break below $3,712 could take price to $3,693
Events Ahead: Silver and Gold Drivers
Next week’s US data will be key for metals:
- Pending Home Sales (Mon): Weak numbers could spark growth concerns, and buy gold and silver.
- JOLTS & Consumer Confidence (Tue): Soft labor demand or sentiment could trigger safe-haven bids.
- ADP Jobs & ISM PMI (Wed): A sub-50 PMI could boost metals, while strong numbers may cap gains.
- Unemployment Claims (Thu): Surprise above 229K would confirm recession chatter.
- Nonfarm Payrolls & Wages (Fri): 51K jobs and 0.3% wage growth expected. Misses here could reprice Fed bets and buy gold.
- ISM Services PMI (Fri): Below 50 would add recession risk, and buy safe-haven.
Gold Trade
For traders, $3,730 is the line in the sand. Above it and we can retest $3,791, with breaks to $3,815-$3,838. Below it and we’re looking at $3,693 and a deeper pullback.
For beginners, think of gold as pausing on a staircase. If it holds this step ($3,730) the next steps up are $3,815 and beyond. But if it slips, it may fall to $3,693 before trying again.
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