WTI Crude Oil Tumbles Toward $87: Trump’s 15-Point Peace Plan Triggers 6% Sell-Off

Quick overview

The global energy market is rapidly adjusting as diplomacy becomes the focus in the Middle East. On March 25, 2026, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell more than 6% in one day, trading around $87.68 per barrel.

This steep drop comes after reports that the Trump administration sent a formal 15-point ceasefire proposal to Tehran through Pakistani mediators. Brent crude has also fallen below the key $100 mark, and WTI is now at its lowest level since the conflict started on February 28.

Even with a “ceasefire rally” in stocks, the situation is still very unstable. Iranian military spokespeople have mocked U.S. efforts, saying Washington is “negotiating with itself,” while oil traders quickly factor in a “peace premium” discount.

USOIL Technical Analysis: WTI Breaches Upward Trendline

The technical outlook for USOIL has turned from bullish to bearish in the short term. After a 10% drop on March 23 and another 6% decline today, the medium-term upward support line from early March has now been broken.

• Support Zones: Support Zones: The key support is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $88.28. If prices close below this level for a full day, losses could speed up toward the $79.84 demand zone.
• Resistance Levels: For WTI to reverse this bearish trend, it must move back above the 50-period moving average at $92.35. Until that happens, any price increases will likely face “sell the news” pressure.

Market Divergence: Traders are seeing a “mismatched” market. While WTI is falling, premium Middle East grades like Murban have dropped by 11%, showing that regional risk premiums are shrinking faster than global benchmarks.

The “Non-Hostile” Corridor: Iran eases its stance on the Strait of Hormuz

In a major diplomatic move, Iran’s mission to the UN and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced today that “non-hostile vessels” can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Coordination Requirement: Vessels must coordinate with Iranian authorities in advance and promise not to support “acts of aggression” against Tehran to be allowed passage.
• Exclusions: Ships linked to the U.S. or Israel are still clearly banned from the waterway.
• Traffic Recovery: Although traffic is still much lower than before the war, tracking shows five vessels passed through the strait on Monday. This slow return of supply is helping to ease recent fears that pushed prices close to $120.

OPEC+ and the Production Buffer

While geopolitics are in the spotlight, OPEC+ is managing the basic support level for oil prices.

Current Strategy: Eight major producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, have confirmed they will keep their production freeze until the end of March 2026. With the market changing quickly, the group will meet on April 5 to discuss whether to speed up the end of their voluntary 1.65 million bpd cuts to help stabilize prices.

Domestic U.S. oil production is still a key buffer, staying steady at 13.7 million bpd. This, along with the Trump administration’s expected plan to relax smog rules for summer gasoline, is meant to quickly help consumers who have seen average petrol prices rise by 34% since the war started.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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