Will Naspers Share Price JSE: NPN Recover from Here or Fall Lower to R800 Support?
Despite significant operational gains, Naspers' share price has been falling precipitously since October 2025 losing around 30%; nonetheless
Quick overview
- Naspers' share price has dropped over 30% since October 2025, despite strong operational gains and fundamentals.
- The company reported a 46% increase in core headline earnings and a 20% rise in revenue for the first half of fiscal 2026, driven by its e-commerce segment.
- Technically, Naspers is in a bullish trend, with key support levels around R800, indicating potential for recovery despite short-term volatility.
- Naspers continues to strategically manage its portfolio, including selling shares in Remitly, while its stake in Tencent remains crucial to its valuation.
Despite significant operational gains, Naspers’ share price has been falling precipitously since October 2025 losing around 30%; nonetheless, strengthening fundamentals and technical support indicate that the larger rise is still in place.
Share Price Pullback Followed by Stabilization
Naspers experienced a strong rally earlier in 2025, emerging as one of the top performers on the JSE. However, after reaching highs in October, the stock entered a correction phase, declining more than 30% and falling from above R1,030 to around R840.
In recent weeks, the share price has begun to stabilize, finding support and attempting a recovery. While short-term sentiment has been affected by volatility, the broader trend remains constructive, suggesting the pullback may represent consolidation rather than a structural shift.
Strong Earnings Highlight Operational Momentum
Fundamentally, Naspers delivered impressive results for the first half of fiscal 2026. Core headline earnings surged 46% to $3.1 billion, while revenue increased 20% to $7.2 billion.
Growth was primarily driven by the company’s e-commerce segment, where profitability continues to improve. Platforms such as Takealot reported solid gains in gross merchandise value, alongside rising earnings supported by better cost control and operational efficiency.
Additional assets, including AutoTrader and Property24, also performed well. These platforms are increasingly integrating AI-driven features to enhance user engagement and monetization, reinforcing Naspers’ strategy of building scalable digital ecosystems.
Moving Averages Continue to Support the Trend
From a technical perspective, Naspers remains positioned within a well-established uptrend. During the retracement, the share price slipped below the 50-week simple moving average (yellow) and then it slipped below the 100 SMA (green). However the decline has stalled and we saw an attempt at climbing higher in March, popping above R1,000 shortly but couldn’t hold the gains and reversed lower.
NPNJ Chart Weekly – Naspers Found Support at the 50 SMA
The larger trend remains bullish, but the sentiment is bearish mid-term, so there might be further pullbacks. The major support zone comes at around R800 where the 200 weekly SMA (purple) also stands. So, that would be a luring place to go long on Naspers if the share price retreats down there.
Portfolio Moves and Capital Allocation
Naspers also made headlines through portfolio adjustments. The company recently sold 12 million shares in Remitly, generating approximately $191.8 million.
This move reflects Naspers’ ongoing approach to capital recycling—unlocking value from investments while redeploying capital into growth opportunities or shareholder returns. Such actions are closely watched by investors as signals of management’s strategic priorities.
Tencent Remains Central to Valuation
A key component of Naspers’ investment case remains its stake in Tencent. The holding continues to represent a significant portion of the group’s underlying value.
While Naspers has gradually reduced its Tencent exposure to fund buybacks and diversification, the stake still plays a major role in earnings and valuation. This creates both upside potential and risk, particularly given regulatory and macroeconomic uncertainty in China’s technology sector.
- Revenue: $7.2 billion, with e-commerce revenue up 21% to $7.0 billion.
- Profitability: Adjusted EBIT turned positive to $130 million (from a $154M loss prior year).
- E-commerce Growth: Key units like iFood grew adjusted EBIT by 178%, while classifieds rose 61%.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): For the half-year ending 09/2025, diluted EPS was US$2.91. For the full-year 2025, EPS was US$31.42.
- Outlook: The group is on track with a three-year plan to double e-commerce revenue and triple adjusted EBIT.
- E-commerce Surge: The group’s e-commerce segments achieved significant profitability, including eMAG and Takealot in South Africa.
- Financial Health: The company continues to invest in AI-driven startups and holds strong cash reserves ($6.54B in FY23H1, according to older data, though current cash flow is strong).
- Future Focus: Continued investment is targeted at AI, food delivery, and classifieds across Latin America, Europe, and India.
Outlook: Recovery with Cautious Optimism
Looking ahead, Naspers appears well-positioned for long-term growth. Strong cash generation, improving profitability in e-commerce, and continued innovation across its platforms provide a solid foundation.
However, risks remain. Share price volatility, reliance on Tencent, and broader market conditions could continue to influence near-term performance.
Overall, the recent rebound suggests that investor confidence is gradually returning. If execution remains strong and global sentiment stabilizes, Naspers could be building a base for its next upward move—though caution remains warranted in the current environment.
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