EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1650 as Trump’s Two-Week Ceasefire Eases Energy Fears – Will It Break 1.1720 or Pull Back to 1.1600?
On April 9, 2026, EUR/USD is trading between 1.1650 and 1.1670. The pair is consolidating after a strong move higher yesterday.
Quick overview
- EUR/USD is currently trading between 1.1650 and 1.1670, consolidating after a strong rally that peaked at 1.1700 on April 8.
- The recent US-Iran ceasefire has reduced demand for the USD as a safe haven, easing energy price pressures in the eurozone.
- Despite a 0.4 to 0.5% rise over the past month, the euro remains below its earlier 2026 highs near 1.20 due to ongoing uncertainties.
- Technical analysis shows EUR/USD is steady above key support levels, with a bullish momentum indicated by the Relative Strength Index.
On April 9, 2026, EUR/USD is trading between 1.1650 and 1.1670. The pair is consolidating after a strong move higher yesterday. On April 8, it briefly reached 1.1700 to 1.1720 before pulling back slightly.
Why is EUR/USD consolidating near 1.1650?
The US-Iran ceasefire has lowered demand for the USD as a safe haven and eased energy price pressures in the eurozone. However, concerns about how fragile and temporary the truce is are limiting further gains for now.
Recent Price Action
On April 8, EUR/USD jumped by 0.75 to over 1% during the day, reaching a new monthly high near 1.1700. The rally followed the ceasefire news, with Iran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This reduced safe-haven demand for the dollar, pushed oil prices down, and boosted European stocks, especially in travel and industrial sectors.
Today, the euro is holding just below 1.17 as uncertainties remain, regional activity continues, and there are still questions about whether the two-week truce will be fully carried out.
Over the past month, the euro has risen by about 0.4 to 0.5%, and it is up more than 4% compared to a year ago. However, it remains below its earlier 2026 highs near 1.20.
Key Drivers Today
- Geopolitics: The ceasefire has eased immediate worries about long-lasting energy disruptions, which supports the euro. Still, because the deal is short-term, volatility remains high. Any new tensions could quickly make the dollar stronger.
- Macro Relief: Lower oil prices are reducing the risk of imported inflation in the eurozone. This could mean the ECB will not need to tighten policy as much, which would help support growth. European bond yields dropped noticeably after the news.
- ECB & Data: Today, new data on eurozone industrial production and trade balance will be released. The ECB has kept interest rates steady, with inflation at about 2.5 to 2.6%. The ceasefire gives the eurozone some relief for now.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading close to 1.1675, steady after a recent move up toward the 1.1722 resistance level. The price remains above 1.1647, which is the 0.382 Fibonacci level, and above a short-term rising trendline. The 50-day simple moving average near 1.1614 is acting as support.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 1.1722 → 1.1749 → 1.1776
- Support: 1.1647 → 1.1620 → 1.1600
Trade Idea: Buy above 1.1680 targeting 1.1722 and 1.1775, stop below 1.1620.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is between 62 and 65, which signals steady bullish momentum but does not indicate that the market is overbought.
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