USOIL at $99.68 Holds Steady as Ceasefire Holds – $104 Breakout Next?

Quick overview

As of May 18, 2026, WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is currently hovering around $99.68 a barrel. The commodity is only slightly up for the session, gaining a modest 0.10% and continuing to trade in a relatively sideways pattern.

Factors at play today include:

• Ceasefire holds: The conditional ceasefire signed between the U.S. and Iran has so far held for more than six weeks with slow but continuous improvement of tanker movement passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The crisis which created significant market turbulence in March and early April is no longer a major issue.
• Supply recovering: There has been a partial return of flows via Hormuz since the start of the year’s price volatility. This has alleviated fears of extended supply disruptions, though the flow is not yet fully normalized due to damage to infrastructure, lack of insurance coverage for tankers and tanker hesitancy to return to the area. Tankers are estimated to be at 70%-75% of normal throughput.
• Supply in balance: Robust U.S. production near all-time highs plus OPEC’s disciplined production management is providing a more balanced supply environment. More production is coming on as well from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada.
• Demand improving: A modest improvement in consumption since the ceasefire has been noted following the drop in oil prices. Demand remains subdued globally in 2026, particularly in areas where higher interest rates are dampening consumption.

Technical outlook for USOIL

USOIL has drawn a bullish hammer on the 2H timeframe having just retested the lower blue ascending channel boundary from May mid-month lows at $93.87. Price is respecting the dynamic support of the red MA at $100.12-$100.67 with the blue MA giving added confluence at $98.97-$99.70.

Price has been making higher lows inside a rising channel, showing no triangle breakdown or bearish reversal. The last impulsive green move had surpassed previous resistance and is now consolidating in a flag pattern that is protecting the 0.382-0.5 Fib area. The RSI is sitting at neutral levels (around 47-54) showing slight bullish divergence from the low while leaving room to move up before overbought territory. Resistance sits first at $100.67 then at $102.86-$104.59.

Key levels for USOIL

Resistance: $100.67 → $102.86 → $104.59

Support: $98.97 → $96.09

Trade idea: Buy above $100.00 with targets of $102.86-$104.59 and stop loss below $98.90. USOIL is slowly recovering from a price environment determined by the threat of supply shocks to one more driven by the more common influences on oil markets such as seasonality, oil inventories and OPEC policy. The U.S. and Iran’s ceasefire deal is easing the immediate risk of supply shock but remains fragile.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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