Bitcoin at $66K Looks Like $2, Claims Analyst Using Long-Term Chart
The chart plots Bitcoin's price over a decade using logarithmic scale, which shows percentage moves instead of absolute dollar moves.
Quick overview
- Crypto Rover's logarithmic regression chart suggests that buying Bitcoin at $65K-$66K is akin to buying it at $2 a decade ago, based on historical price patterns.
- The chart indicates that Bitcoin has consistently returned to a predictable upward curve, with significant rallies following dips to the lower band of that curve.
- Opinions are divided among analysts, with some cautioning about resistance at $70K while others point to oversold metrics indicating a potential bottom.
- The upcoming price movements around the $65K-$66K level will be crucial in determining whether Rover's predictions hold true.
Crypto Rover dropped a logarithmic regression chart Thursday that got crypto Twitter buzzing. His argument: buying Bitcoin right now at $65K-$66K is basically the same opportunity as buying it at $2 a decade ago, $10, $200, $3,500, or $16,000 during the 2022 bear cycle.
Sounds insane until you look at what he’s actually showing. The chart plots Bitcoin’s price over a decade using logarithmic scale, which shows percentage moves instead of absolute dollar moves. On that scale, Bitcoin has stayed surprisingly close to a predictable upward curve. Every time it dipped to touch the lower band of that curve, massive rallies followed.
Rover’s 1.6 million X followers got the gist immediately. His point: we’re touching the curve again. That historical pattern says monster rallies come next. The specific levels that triggered before? $2, then $10, then $200, then $3,500, then $16,000. Each one preceded a run to new all-time highs.
If he’s right about the curve holding, $66K is functionally equivalent to $2 from the perspective of risk-reward. The absolute dollar amount doesn’t matter. What matters is where you are relative to the long-term logarithmic growth path.
But Is The Bottom Actually In?
That’s where opinions split hard. Jelle from crypto Twitter pushed back slightly, saying Bitcoin’s “still working on” its bottom even if the technical picture is improving. He sees the previous local consolidation becoming support, which is fine. But he also warned that resistance at $70K could be tough to break given how weak sentiment is right now.
Michaël van de Poppe threw out a much more bullish signal. The Puell Multiple – a measure comparing mining rewards to price – has dropped into oversold territory. History matters here. Every time that happened before (2015, 2018, 2020, 2022), the bottom formed “shortly after.” He’s betting this time isn’t different.
That’s the split between cautious and bullish analysts right now. Cautious says “sure, maybe $70K is next but then what, we’re still weak.” Bullish says “oversold metrics always formed bottoms before, we’re about to rip.”
Rover’s logarithmic curve argument works if Bitcoin follows its historical pattern. Massive assumption but patterns did repeat for over a decade. Meanwhile, the Puell Multiple signals lining up with historical bottom-forming occasions adds credibility to the bullish case.
For now Bitcoin’s bumping against the $65K-$66K level. Bounce cleanly above $70K and Rover looks right. Break below $60K and the logarithmic case gets tested. That’s the next real test.
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