Quick overview

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Gold futures are trading around $ 4,125  in a stabilization phase after fluctuating in recent months. : Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are pushing crude oil above $90 a barrel, fueling fears of a resurgence of inflation. Bond yields (particularly the 30-year US Treasury ) remain high, and the market anticipates tight policy of the Federal Reserve, which limits the short-term upside potential for a non-yielding asset like gold.

Rising crude oil prices and resilient US economic data are keeping bond yields at high levels. The cautious stance of central banks is curbing immediate upward momentum in non-yielding assets. Geopolitical risks persist and sustained central bank purchases continue to provide a solid foundation.

The majority of forecasts for the second half of 2026 target an average of around $ 4,500 per ounce, consolidating the underlying upward trend after the historic high of around $5,600 reached at the beginning of the year

Despite rising interest rates, gold maintains a solid floor below $4,000. Safe-haven demand linked to global geopolitical risks and continued purchases by global central banks continue to cushion the downward phases.

 The price is currently testing the resistance zone around 4,155$– $ 4,165 (which coincides with the 200-period moving average on the H4 timeframe and the Fibonacci retracement). A clear break above this zone would open the way to $4,300 . Conversely, if resistance rejects the price, the major support to watch is around $ 3,940.$– 4 000$.

 Analysts and institutions (notably JP Morgan) maintain a structurally bullish bias for the end of the year and the coming year, believing that the ultimate monetary pivot of central banks and the diversification of global reserves should take the yellow metal to new highs.