Morgan Stanley: Drop to $100 Turns SpaceX Into a Pure Rocket Play

SpaceX’s selloff pushed its shares to near a level implying zero value to investors from the company’s artificial intelligence business, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

Written by: Olumide Adesina • Saturday, July 25, 2026 • 2 min read

• Last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026

Quick overview

SpaceX's stock has fallen significantly since its $86 billion IPO, trading nearly 18% below its initial price.
Morgan Stanley analysts believe the current market undervalues SpaceX's AI business, attributing it zero or negative value.
Analyst Adam Jonas suggests that the stock may pull back to around $100 before a lockup expiration allows insiders to sell.
Despite recent challenges, about 80% of Wall Street analysts recommend buying SpaceX shares, with an average target price of $232.

SpaceX’s selloff pushed its shares to near a level implying zero value to investors from the company’s artificial intelligence business, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley.

SpaceX

The shares of the rocket and artificial intelligence firm have seen a rocky start to trading since their mega $86 billion offering in mid-June, skyrocketing about 50% in their initial sessions, but sliding since to briefly trade at $110.85 each – just shy of about 18% below the IPO price at one point this week.

“We believe the current disconnect between increasingly bearish investor sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals creates an attractive entry point in SpaceX shares,” Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley analyst, told clients in a note on Friday.

“Most of our calls will be for further stock pullbacks toward $100 per share where the lockup of the initial batch of shares will expire next month, and some insiders will be able to sell”, Jonas said. ” At this level, in our view, investors are attributing zero or negative value to their AI business.” Jonas has set a price target of $300 for shares of SpaceX stock, and about a third of which has been allocated to the company’s AI business, at least based on their valuation methodology, Jonas writes.

“The overwhelming majority of our calls see significantly negative valuation for both Grok & Cursor, and most investors place zero or negative valuation on their AI business due to its large capex outlays vs Space & Connectivity, murky future economics and heavy management involvement,” Jonas noted.

SpaceX has been hammered in recent weeks amid a wider turn away from the tech giants’ spending of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars to develop AI technologies. The uncertain economic outlook, heightened concern over inflation in the wake of increased tensions between the United States and Iran, which push up oil costs, will reduce risk sentiment. The overwhelming majority (roughly 80%) of Wall Street analysts suggest investors buy SpaceX’s shares with an average of $232-a-share target Price, indicating more than twofold gain of the current market Price of SpaceX.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Olumide Adesina

Financial Market Writer

Olumide Adesina is a French-born Nigerian financial writer. He tracks the financial markets with over 15 years of working experience in investment trading.