Daily Briefing, July 4 – US Independence Day, Economic Events to Trade Today

Posted Thursday, July 4, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Good morning, traders.

Happy Independence Day to the US citizens from Team FX Leaders. The trading activities are pretty slow today as the US markets seem to enjoy independence day holiday ahead of the significant news, Nonfarm payroll. The holiday has shortened the week, and so far there have been few changes in the market trends since Monday. Indeed, the market awaits the US labor market figures before making a move.

Looking ahead at the economic calendar, the market has only a few catalysts that may or may not drive moves; however, traders are likely to price in NFP based on ADP figures.

Watchlist – Economic Events & Sentiments

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
As per the recent report by Automatic Data Processing, Inc, employment creation seems to have had another turbulent period in June, with private businesses scoring merely 102K fresh positions.

Private payrolls grew 102K in June, missing economists forecast of 140K new jobs. The figure sets the stage for another potential setback from Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is anticipated to record a growth of 165k after May’s lackluster 75K.

With this, it’s unlikely that the NFP data could cheer the dollar as expectations for NFP remain negative. Moreover, weaker NFP hikes the sentiments for US rate cuts. So, the market may trade with a weaker dollar sentiment today.

CHF – CPI m/m – 6:30 GMT
Consumer prices estimate for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is related to currency valuation because growing prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

The Swiss Federal Statistical Office is expected to report a drop in inflation data by -0.1% vs. 0.3% in May. CHF may have a negative movement due to this, but the bearish price action is likely to be short-lived considering the safe haven nature of the currency.

EUR – Retail Sales m/m – 9:00 GMT
The Eurostat is due to release of the data with a positive forecast of 0.4% surge in retail sales vs. -0.4% drop in May. The figures may have an impact on Euro valuation as retail sales are considered the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Good luck, and stay tuned to FX Leaders for forex trading signals and market updates!

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