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25,000 Back In Play For The DOW

Posted Wednesday, August 7, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The opening action on Wall Street is hot and heavy, with volatility being the early rule. For the first half-hour of trade U.S. stocks are getting crushed once again ― losses in the DJIA DOW (-485), S&P 500 SPX (-44), and NASDAQ (-105) have headlined the action. For the DOW, prices are approaching the long-term psyche level of 25,000.

Investor angst is reaching a fevered pitch, as shown by today’s CBOE VIX Index. Known as the “volatility index,” the VIX is a key barometer of market turbulence. Today, the VIX has hit 23.25, suggesting that volatility is trending toward the upper quartile of the 52-week range. As a comparison, the Christmas Eve plunge of 2018 measured a staggering 36. So, while the financial waters are certainly choppy, we still have a ways to go before hitting historic levels.

The DOW Opens Down Triple-Digits

For the second time in three sessions, equities bulls have sprinted for the door on the opening bell. The September E-mini DOW is certainly feeling the pain, having already bounced from 25,000 once during Tuesday’s trade.

September E-mini DOW Futures (YM), Daily Chart
September E-mini DOW Futures (YM), Daily Chart

Here are the key levels to watch in this market for the remainder of the session:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Retracement, 25882
  • Support(1): Psyche Level, 25000

Overview: The daily chart for the September E-mini DOW is exceedingly bearish. Prices have failed to rally above the 38% Retracement (25882) indicating that the current downtrend is valid. Until we see the bulls get involved above this level, a short side bias is appropriate.

For the first time since last spring, it looks like 25,000 is back in play for the DOW. This is the ultimate big-round-number for equities and is certain to draw heavy two-way action. Tuesday saw bidders step up and defend the area as support ― if the market challenges 25000 again today, we may see a bulk of stop orders run and price extend well beneath this vaunted price point.

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