According to estimates by the Association of German Chambers of Commerce (DIHK), German exports could see a contraction for the first time after the 2008-09 global financial crisis during 2020. Rising global trade tensions and ongoing Brexit uncertainties could cause growth in Germany’s exports to slow down to 0.3% in 2019, significantly lower than the 2.1% YoY growth seen in 2018.

The situation is likely to worsen further into 2020 when export growth could contract by 0.5%. Eurozone’s largest economy relies heavily on its manufacturing sector and exports. According to DIHK’s estimates, export growth used to average around 5.5%. The downward revision of export growth rate has also caused DIHK to downgrade GDP growth estimates for the year from 0.6% to 0.4% previously.

Worries of an impending recession in the German economy have been climbing higher on the back of weak economic data releases. According to the most recent data from DeStatis, Germany’s exports declined by more than expected, falling by 1.8% in August. In Q2, Germany’s GDP had contracted by 0.1%.