Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday was a quiet day regarding the economic data, apart from the German Ifo business climate indicator, which posted an increase this month, showing that the business climate is improving despite the conflict in Ukraine and higher prices everywhere. Yet, EUR/USD continued the decline, although it was coming from the USD side since the buck has been pretty bullish for the last three trading days.

Cryptocurrencies have turned bearish as well this month. They reversed higher in March after being bearish for several months and made respectable gains. But, sellers returned this month and the bearish pressure has resumed again. BITCOIN (BTC) fell below $40,000 while ETHEREUM declined below $3,000. Governments are heading towards regulating cryptos, so the trading volume has declined, which is affecting the price as it slips lower. Although, let’s see if this bearish move will push prices lower or if it will end here.

The Data Today

Today the economic calendar is light again, starting with the unemployment rate and the CPI inflation report from Japan. Core CPI inflation is expected to tick higher to 1.1% from 1.0% last month, but that’s still pretty low compared to Europe and the US, so Bank of Japan doesn’t have any pressure to hike interest rates, which will keep the JPY bearish, since other major central banks are already hiking rates.

In the US session, we have the US Durable Goods Orders and the CB Consumer Confidence reports, both of which are expected to be positive, which will add further strength to the USD, if buyers still remain in control by then. Commodities remain bearish as China’s lockdown measures continue, so we will keep an eye on GOLD and SILVER and try to sell them on a retrace higher.

Forex Signal Update

Yesterday we only had two forex signals, both in USD/JPY, since the price action was pretty slow in forex. We were looking to sell commodity currencies such as the NZD and the AUD, but didn’t get a chance.

USD/JPY  – Buy Signal

USD/JPY has been on a bullish trend since last summer and in the last two months, since the conflict in Ukraine started, the uptrend has picked up pace incredibly. The JPY should have turned bullish since it is a safe haven and safe havens benefit in times of trouble.

But, the JPY is declining as the BOJ remains on hold, while other central banks are hiking rates fast. We opened three buy signals yesterday, two of which closed in profit while the other closed in red as this pair retreated lower. Although, we decided to open another buy signal lower after the retreat, which then closed in profit.

Cryptocurrency Update

Cryptocurrencies have resumed the downtrend again, as the sentiment turns negative due to increasing regulation, as governments try to bring them under control. Fantom was showing strength until the middle of January, testing the previous highs close to $3.50, while the market was declining for two months.

But the bearish momentum caught up and FTM has declined to almost $1. Just below here we have a strong support zone around $0.90, which we are watching because we are planning to open a long position from here, but only if the sentiment starts to improve.