Forex Signals Brief for April 5: RBNZ Delivers the Last Rate Hike
The RBNZ raised rates by 25 bps to 5.00% early this morning, while later we have the ADP employment and ISM services reports
Yesterday’s Market Wrap
It seems like the picture is getting darker for the USD, as some major countries are trying to scrape it altogether, while fundamentals are turning bearish. The lower ISM manufacturing and and ISM prices on Monday added to the USD weakness after last week’s weaker PCE prices. Yesterday we saw the JOLTS job openings miss expectations and falling below 10 million for the first time in nearly 2 years.
Jobs is another data point which the FED is looking at now, so yesterday’s number weighed on the USD and safe havens in particular surged higher, with Gold moving decisively above $2,000 and it seems like this time it will stay there after failing several times last month. The AUD showed some weakness as well yesterday, as the RBA left interest rates unchanged in the morning, against some expectations of hiking by 25 basis points.
Today’s Market Expectations
Today started with another major event, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its March meeting and hiking the cash rate by 25 basis points (bps) which seems to be the last one for now. They raised rates from 4.75% to 5.00%. Later on we have the US ADP employment change, which are expected to slow down to 208K. That will be followed by the ISM services which are also expected to slow down.
Forex Signals Update
Yesterday the volatility remained high again as the USD continued he decline and safe havens surged higher, especially after the softer JOLTS job openings. We opened five trading signals, closing the day with three winning signals and two losing ones, although two of the winning forex signals were long term trades.
GOLD Finally Overtaking $2,000
Gold continues to find solid demand as investors continue to reach for safe-havens, droving up demand for XAU. Gold bounced off the 100 SMA (green) on the H4 chart, which held as support and yesterday buyers pushed the price above $2,000, so I think that this time they will keep the price above that level for some time.
XAU/USD – 240 minute chart
EUR/USD Failing to Hold Above 1.09
EUR/USD moved above 1.09 yesterday as the sentiment turned positive after the soft JOLTS jobs data and the USD retreated. The 20 SMA (gray) held as support on the H4 chart which shows that the buying pressure remains strong. Now this pair is approaching the 1.10 level so we’ll see if buyers can break and keep the price above there.
EUR/USD – 240 minute chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Cryptocurrencies turned bullish in the second part of March and remained biased toward the upside last week as main crypto coins printed some new highs for the year. Although the buying pressure has diminished right now and we are in a period of consolidation before the next run to the upside.
BITCOIN Holds the Gains
Bitcoin made new highs last week as buyers pushed the price above $29,000, although they missed to reach our take profit target below $30,000. The price continues to be supported by moving averages during pullbacks lower and the lows are getting higher, so the next target will be $30,000 soon.
BTC/USD – 240 minute chart
ETHEREUM Heads for $2,000
Ethereum experienced some bullish momentum last week after consolidating in the previous week and our buy ETH/USD signal hit the take profit target as it pushed above $1,800. Moving averages have turned into support on the H4 chart with a decent support zone around $1,700.
ETH/USD – 240 minute chart
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