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Weekly S&P500 Price Forecast: AI Surge & Earnings Calendar Set Stage

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The S&P 500 (SPX) concluded the week on a positive note, closing at 5137.07, marking an uptick of 0.95% driven by surge in technology stocks amid the burgeoning excitement over artificial intelligence (AI). This rally was further bolstered by a decline in Treasury yields, setting the stage for a robust close to the week.

S&P500 (SPX) Price Chart

The spotlight shone brightly on AI-centric companies, such as Nvidia and Meta Platforms, propelling the Nasdaq to surpass its previous high from November 2021.

Nvidia’s shares ascended by 4%, marking a historic milestone as its market valuation soared above $2 trillion.

Similarly, Advanced Micro Devices experienced a notable surge, closing at an all-time high, which contributed to the Philadelphia semiconductor index reaching a new zenith.

This collective enthusiasm for AI and semiconductors underscored the broader market’s fourth consecutive month of gains.

Economic Resilience Fuels Market Optimism

Investors remain attuned to the economy’s resilience, with growing anticipation for the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut, potentially in June. Despite some lingering weaknesses in the manufacturing sector, the services sector and labor market demonstrate sustained strength. This economic backdrop has led to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields, with remarks from Fed officials suggesting a cautious yet optimistic approach to interest rate adjustments and inflation control.

Sector Performance and Market Movers

In a detailed breakdown of market performance, the S&P 500 tech index emerged as the standout sector, while utilities lagged behind.

Among individual companies, New York Community Bancorp faced a significant setback after revealing internal control issues, whereas Dell Technologies experienced a dramatic surge following its optimistic annual forecast. Meanwhile, Boeing encountered a slight dip amid reports of potential acquisitions.

As the market navigates through these developments, advancing issues have notably outnumbered decliners, painting a picture of underlying market confidence.

With new highs being set and minimal new lows, the investment landscape appears ripe for strategic opportunities, underscored by the week’s noteworthy gains across major indexes.

Earning Calendar Next Week

This week, several major companies are slated to report their quarterly earnings, with analysts and investors closely monitoring these announcements for insights into corporate health and market trends. Here’s a succinct overview of what to expect:

Tuesday, March 5, 2024: A Diverse Lineup

  • CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) is on deck, with earnings per share (EPS) expectations set at $0.8233 and revenue forecasts at $839.11M. With a market cap of $75.55B, the cybersecurity firm’s results could influence tech sector sentiment.
  • Target (TGT), the retail giant, is anticipated to report an EPS of $2.41 against revenues of $31.83B. Holding a market cap of $71.69B, Target’s performance could reflect broader consumer spending trends.
  • Ross Stores (ROST), with a market valuation of $50.38B, is expected to unveil an EPS of $1.65 and revenues around $5.8B, offering insights into the discount retail sector.

Midweek Highlights for Wednesday, March 6, 2024:

  • Brown Forman (BF.B), known for its spirits, eyes an EPS forecast of $0.5643 and revenue predictions of $1.13B, showcasing the beverage industry’s resilience or volatility.
  • Campbell Soup (CPB) is projected to hit an EPS of $0.7731 with $2.44B in revenue, potentially indicating consumer goods’ stability with its $12.78B market cap.

Thursday, March 7, 2024: Tech and Retail Take the Stage

  • Broadcom (AVGO) steps forward with an EPS forecast of $10.4 and revenue expectations of $11.79B, reflecting the semiconductor industry’s strength.
  • Costco (COST), with an EPS estimate of $3.62 and revenue forecast at $59.11B, will highlight retail performance from a wholesale perspective.
  • Oracle (ORCL) is set to report with an EPS forecast of $1.38 and revenues expected to be $13.29B, providing a glimpse into the software and cloud sector.
  • Marvell (MRVL), with projections of $0.4621 EPS and $1.42B in revenue, will shed light on the tech hardware space.
  • Kroger (KR), expected to announce an EPS of $1.13 and $37.02B in revenue, will offer insights into the grocery sector’s health.
  • MongoDB (MDB) rounds out the week with an EPS forecast of $0.4563 and revenue estimates of $437.18M, highlighting the database management segment’s growth.

S&P 500 (SPX) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 (SPX) concluded the week on a positive note, closing at 5137.07, marking an uptick of 0.95%. This performance underlines a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market, as indicated by the 4-hour chart analysis.

The pivot point at 5102.96 emerges as a crucial juncture, with the index surpassing this level, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Immediate resistance levels are identified at 5153.66, 5214.79, and 5269.96, each representing potential hurdles for further upward movement.

Conversely, support levels are established at 5052.27, 4998.59, and 4941.93, which could provide a safety net against any pullbacks.

S&P500 (SPX) Price Chart

Technical indicators further validate this optimistic stance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), resting at 70, indicates strong buying momentum without venturing into overextended territory.

Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 4893.29 acts as a solid foundation, supporting the ongoing upward trajectory.

The formation of a bullish engulfing candle on the daily timeframe suggests an acceleration in buying trends, potentially pushing the SPX towards higher resistance levels. In summary, the S&P 500 exhibits a robust bullish trend, especially with the index holding above the $5100 level.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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