AUD/USD Price Forecast: Climbs to 0.6516, Eyes on GDP Data & Powell’s Testimony

On March 6, the AUD/USD currency pair recorded a modest uptick of 0.19%, settling at 0.65163 amid shifting market dynamics.

Arslan Butt•Wednesday, March 6, 2024•2 min read

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

On March 6, the AUD/USD currency pair recorded a modest uptick of 0.19%, settling at 0.65163 amid shifting market dynamics. This movement follows the muted performance of Wall Street, which was primarily due to declines in significant technology stocks.

Impact of Global Services PMI on AUD/USD Price

Recent releases of Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs) from S&P Global and the ISM have influenced the AUD/USD price forecast. The S&P Global Services PMI dropped slightly to 52.3 in February, signalling potential shifts in the US Federal Reserve’s policy direction, possibly as early as June.

Despite a slight underperformance in the ISM Services PMI, which came in at 52.6 against the anticipated 53, market participants adjusted their positions, hinting at expectations of a dovish policy pivot.

Australia’s Economic Outlook: Q4 GDP Preview

The market’s focus now turns to the upcoming release of Australia’s GDP data for the final quarter of 2023. Predictions indicate a steady quarterly growth rate of 0.3%, with a slight adjustment in the annual growth projections from 2.1% to 1.4%.

This data is critical for investors crafting an AUD/USD price forecast, offering insights into the economic resilience of Australia amidst global uncertainties.

Awaiting Powell’s Testimony: A Determinant for AUD/USD Trend

Another pivotal moment for the AUD/USD price trajectory will be Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Analysts anticipate a cautious yet slightly hawkish tone from Powell, emphasizing the need for patience as the job market remains robust and inflation shows signs of moderation.

Powell’s commentary could significantly sway the AUD/USD price direction, underscoring the interconnectedness of US monetary policy and global currency markets.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair’s pivot point is around 0.6518, indicating potential shifts in trading strategy. Resistance levels are identified at 0.6535, 0.6557, and 0.6575, challenging upward momentum.

Support for the Australian dollar is found at 0.6493, with additional levels at 0.6477 and 0.6461, offering a buffer against further declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52, suggesting a balanced market condition.

However, a downward trendline and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6517 signal potential resistance.

A selling trend might be triggered under the 0.6516 level, with the overall trend remaining bearish below 0.6518. However, a decisive move above this threshold could pivot the bias towards bullishness.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.