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Oil Prices Consolidate Above $85 Despite Large EIA Inventory Buildup

WTI Oil continues to remain bullish with Oil prices consolidating above $85, despite the buildup in EIA inventories and lower revisions for Oil demand. Today we saw a 5.8 million barrel buildup in EIA inventories, but after the initial dip to $84.50, WTI crude bounced back up from the support zone down there.

EIA inventories showed a considerable increase for last week

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Weekly US Oil Inventory for the Week Ending April 5 by the Energy Information Administration (EIA)

  • Crude oil inventories: Increased by 5,841,000 barrels, significantly higher than the expected increase of 2,366,000 barrels. The prior week showed an increase of 3,210,000 barrels.
  • Gasoline inventories: Rose by 715,000 barrels, contrasting with the expected decrease of 1,320,000 barrels.
  • Distillate inventories: Increased by 1,659,000 barrels, while a decrease of 1,153,000 barrels was expected.
  • Production: Remained unchanged at 13.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), consistent with the prior week.
  • Implied motor gasoline demand: Recorded at 8.61 million barrels per day, down from 9.24 million barrels per day in the previous period.

Additionally, the American Petroleum Institute (API) released data late yesterday, showing the following:

  • Crude oil inventories: Increased by 3,034,000 barrels.
  • Gasoline inventories: Declined by 609,000 barrels.
  • Distillate inventories: Rose by 120,000 barrels.

The latest EIA weekly US crude oil inventories report showed a larger-than-expected increase of 5,841K barrels, compared to the forecasted rise of 2,366K barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 715K barrels, contrary to expectations of a decrease of 1,320K barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 1,659K barrels, also defying expectations of a decline of 1,153K barrels. Crude oil production remained steady at 13.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), unchanged from the previous week.

WTI Crude Oil Chart H4 – Trading Between 2 MAs

The oil market experienced volatility at the beginning of the week, initially opening with a bearish gap lower amid rumors of peace in the Middle East. However, buyers quickly stepped in, closing the gap and pushing WTI oil prices to $87. Today, the market saw a reversal of sentiment, with sellers regaining control and causing WTI oil to drop to the $85.20s and test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

The EIA’s downward revision of oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025, coupled with a significant buildup in inventories reported today, initially put downward pressure on crude oil prices. However, after the immediate dip, the support level held at $84.50, and oil prices continued to trade within the range defined by the 20-period SMA (grey line) and the 50-period SMA (yellow line) on the 4-hour chart. This indicates a consolidation phase in the market as buyers and sellers assess the latest developments and market fundamentals.

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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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