The 200 SMA Caps NZD/USD Despite Higher NZ Retail Sales

The price volatility in the USD to NZD rate has increased after the RBNZ meeting and the retail sales from New Zealand last night. The price was consolidating in a tight range below the 200 SMA (purple) on the daily chart for several days, which has been acting as resistance and after the failure it seems to be reversing down now.

Despite the hawkish outlook from the RBNZ, the underlying trend for the NZD remains weak. The pair has faced significant resistance at the 200 SMA on the daily chart and 100 SMA on the weekly chart, which continues to reject upward movements. Now traders should monitor key technical levels, particularly the 200 SMA, to gauge the next potential moves in the pair.

NZD/USD Chart Daily – Buyers Failed at the 200 SMA

The NZD/USD pair has shown resilience over the past two months, but the strong resistance at the 200-weekly SMA has proven difficult to overcome. The RBNZ’s hawkish stance provided temporary support, but the broader market dynamics, including USD strength and anticipation of weak NZ retail sales data, led to a bearish reversal. Q1 sales came at 0.5% actually, which did help the NZD for a while but they didn’t change the overall trend.

Traders were monitoring the retail sales figures which were published last night, and any further economic data releases from the US and New Zealand to gauge the next potential moves. The 50-day SMA will continue to be an important support level, while the 200-weekly SMA remains a critical resistance level to watch.

NZD/USD Resistance and Support Levels:

• 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) Resistance: During the past two months, NZD/USD encountered significant resistance at the 50-day SMA (yellow), stalling its upward momentum.
• 200-weekly SMA (purple) Resistance: Last week, the price continued its upward trajectory, reaching the 200-weekly SMA, which is a crucial resistance level on the long-term chart.

Price Action:

• Repeated Attempts at 200 SMA: Buyers have attempted to break through the 200-weekly SMA multiple times but have been unsuccessful. These attempts include a notable rise following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)’s hawkish comments during their recent meeting.

New Zealand Q1 Retail Sales Report

• Q1 retail sales QoQ +0.5% vs -0.3% expected
• Q4 retail sales were -1.8%, revised higher from -1.9%
• Core retail sales QoQ 0.4% vs 0.09% expected
• previous QoQ retail sales were -1.6%, revised higher from -1.7%

NZD/USD Live Chart

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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