Signs of Waning US Consumer Are Increasing! Will the FED Cut?

The US Consumer has been holding the US economy afloat in this difficult period since 2020, but signs are increasing that the consumer is weakening. The high FED rates have filtered through all subsectors of the economy, which is hurting the consumer, which means that the odds of a rate cut soon will increase.

The Conference Board consumer confidence indicator has been on a softening trend since January, apart from the jump in May. But the decline resumed again in June. The CB consumer confidence dipped in June but stayed within the narrow range it has occupied for the past two years. The robust perception of the current labor market overshadowed worries about future conditions. However, Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, noted that if major issues in the job market surface, confidence could decrease as the year unfolds.

US June 2024 Consumer Confidence from The Conference Board

  • Consumer Confidence: The overall consumer confidence index came in slightly above expectations at 100.4 points, though it showed a decline from the previous month’s revised figure of 101.3 points.
  • Expectations vs. Present Situation: The Expectations Index dropped to 73.0 points from 74.9 points, indicating consumers are slightly less optimistic about future business conditions and job prospects. In contrast, the Present Situation Index improved to 141.5 points from 140.8 points, reflecting a more positive assessment of current economic conditions.
  • Employment Perception: The slight decrease in the percentage of consumers reporting jobs as “hard to get” suggests a modest improvement in labor market perceptions.
  • Inflation Expectations: Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations edged down to 5.3% from 5.4%, indicating a minor easing of inflation concerns.

POOL Corporation Shares Tumble As Home Investments Fall

POOL Corporation, a key player in the swimming pool supplies and products sector, has been a top performing stock for 20 years, benefiting from the trend of housing investment. However, its shares are down today following news of reduced earnings and revenue. In a statement, POOL provided an update on the 2024 swimming pool season and revised its profitability forecast.

The company reported a 6.5% decline in year-to-date net revenues compared to 2023. Q2 2024 revenues fell short of expectations due to a drop in new pool construction and renovation activities, now anticipated to decline by 15% for the year. Consequently, POOL has lowered its annual earnings outlook to $11.04-11.44 per diluted share, down from $13.19-14.19.

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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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